Expected Goals Prediction in Professional Handball using Synchronized Event and Positional Data
Adams M, David A, Hesse M, Rückert U, Lienhart R, Moeslund TB, Saito H (2023)
In: Proceedings of the 6th International Workshop on Multimedia Content Analysis in Sports. New York, NY, USA: ACM: 83-91.
Konferenzbeitrag
| Veröffentlicht | Englisch
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Autor*in
Adams, MichaelUniBi 
;
David, AlexanderUniBi;
Hesse, MarcUniBi ;
Rückert, UlrichUniBi;
Lienhart, Rainer;
Moeslund, Thomas B.;
Saito, Hideo
;
David, AlexanderUniBi;
Hesse, MarcUniBi ;
Rückert, UlrichUniBi;
Lienhart, Rainer;
Moeslund, Thomas B.;
Saito, HideoAbstract / Bemerkung
In this study, we employ an extensive single-season dataset of event and positional data, as well as machine learning techniques, to build an Expected Goals (xG) model for handball. The selected features of the data include distances, angles, and game context. Several algorithms were considered, and after a five-fold cross-validation and hyperparameter optimization, CatBoost emerged as the most suitable, achieving a predictive accuracy of about 70%. Our methodology integrates a data synchronization and throw detection approach, along with a comprehensive exploration of feature importance using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. The findings provide insights into handball strategy and player performance, unlocking new potential for game analysis and tactical planning. Looking forward, the practical applications of this research extend to enhancing player training, refining team strategies, and offering a deeper understanding of handball dynamics.
Erscheinungsjahr
2023
Titel des Konferenzbandes
Proceedings of the 6th International Workshop on Multimedia Content Analysis in Sports
Seite(n)
83-91
Konferenz
MM '23: The 31st ACM International Conference on Multimedia
Konferenzort
Ottawa ON Canada
Konferenzdatum
2023-10-29 – 2023-10-29
ISBN
9798400702693
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2983888
Zitieren
Adams M, David A, Hesse M, et al. Expected Goals Prediction in Professional Handball using Synchronized Event and Positional Data. In: Proceedings of the 6th International Workshop on Multimedia Content Analysis in Sports. New York, NY, USA: ACM; 2023: 83-91.
Adams, M., David, A., Hesse, M., Rückert, U., Lienhart, R., Moeslund, T. B., & Saito, H. (2023). Expected Goals Prediction in Professional Handball using Synchronized Event and Positional Data. Proceedings of the 6th International Workshop on Multimedia Content Analysis in Sports, 83-91. New York, NY, USA: ACM. https://doi.org/10.1145/3606038.3616152
Adams, Michael, David, Alexander, Hesse, Marc, Rückert, Ulrich, Lienhart, Rainer, Moeslund, Thomas B., and Saito, Hideo. 2023. “Expected Goals Prediction in Professional Handball using Synchronized Event and Positional Data”. In Proceedings of the 6th International Workshop on Multimedia Content Analysis in Sports, 83-91. New York, NY, USA: ACM.
Adams, M., David, A., Hesse, M., Rückert, U., Lienhart, R., Moeslund, T. B., and Saito, H. (2023). “Expected Goals Prediction in Professional Handball using Synchronized Event and Positional Data” in Proceedings of the 6th International Workshop on Multimedia Content Analysis in Sports (New York, NY, USA: ACM), 83-91.
Adams, M., et al., 2023. Expected Goals Prediction in Professional Handball using Synchronized Event and Positional Data. In Proceedings of the 6th International Workshop on Multimedia Content Analysis in Sports. New York, NY, USA: ACM, pp. 83-91.
M. Adams, et al., “Expected Goals Prediction in Professional Handball using Synchronized Event and Positional Data”, Proceedings of the 6th International Workshop on Multimedia Content Analysis in Sports, New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2023, pp.83-91.
Adams, M., David, A., Hesse, M., Rückert, U., Lienhart, R., Moeslund, T.B., Saito, H.: Expected Goals Prediction in Professional Handball using Synchronized Event and Positional Data. Proceedings of the 6th International Workshop on Multimedia Content Analysis in Sports. p. 83-91. ACM, New York, NY, USA (2023).
Adams, Michael, David, Alexander, Hesse, Marc, Rückert, Ulrich, Lienhart, Rainer, Moeslund, Thomas B., and Saito, Hideo. “Expected Goals Prediction in Professional Handball using Synchronized Event and Positional Data”. Proceedings of the 6th International Workshop on Multimedia Content Analysis in Sports. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2023. 83-91.
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