Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty
Breznau N, Rinke EM, Wuttke A, Adem M, Adriaans J, Alvarez-Benjumea A, Andersen HK, Auer D, Azevedo F, Bahnsen O, Balzer D, et al. (2022)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 119(44): e2203150119.
Zeitschriftenaufsatz
| Veröffentlicht | Englisch
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Autor*in
Breznau, Nate;
Rinke, Eike Mark;
Wuttke, Alexander;
Adem, Muna;
Adriaans, JuleUniBi ;
Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia;
Andersen, Henrik Kenneth;
Auer, Daniel;
Azevedo, Flavio;
Bahnsen, Oke;
Balzer, Dave;
Bauer, Gerrit
Alle
Alle
Einrichtung
Abstract / Bemerkung
This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers’ expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team’s workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers’ results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
Erscheinungsjahr
2022
Zeitschriftentitel
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Band
119
Ausgabe
44
Art.-Nr.
e2203150119
eISSN
1091-6490
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2963936
Zitieren
Breznau N, Rinke EM, Wuttke A, et al. Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2022;119(44): e2203150119.
Breznau, N., Rinke, E. M., Wuttke, A., Adem, M., Adriaans, J., Alvarez-Benjumea, A., Andersen, H. K., et al. (2022). Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(44), e2203150119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2203150119
Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, et al. 2022. “Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 119 (44): e2203150119.
Breznau, N., Rinke, E. M., Wuttke, A., Adem, M., Adriaans, J., Alvarez-Benjumea, A., Andersen, H. K., Auer, D., Azevedo, F., Bahnsen, O., et al. (2022). Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 119:e2203150119.
Breznau, N., et al., 2022. Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(44): e2203150119.
N. Breznau, et al., “Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 119, 2022, : e2203150119.
Breznau, N., Rinke, E.M., Wuttke, A., Adem, M., Adriaans, J., Alvarez-Benjumea, A., Andersen, H.K., Auer, D., Azevedo, F., Bahnsen, O., Balzer, D., Bauer, G., Bauer, P., Baumann, M., Baute, S., Benoit, V., Bernauer, J., Berning, C., Berthold, A., Bethke, F.S., Biegert, T., Blinzler, K., Blumenberg, J., Bobzien, L., Bohman, A., Bol, T., Bostic, A., Brzozowska, Z., Burgdorf, K., Burger, K., Busch, K., Castillo, J.C., Chan, N., Christmann, P., Connelly, R., Czymara, C.S., Damian, E., Ecker, A., Edelmann, A., Eger, M.A., Ellerbrock, S., Forke, A., Forster, A.G., Gaasendam, C., Gavras, K., Gayle, V., Gessler, T., Gnambs, T., Godefroidt, A., Grömping, M., Groß, M., Gruber, S., Gummer, T., Hadjar, A., Heisig, J.P., Hellmeier, S., Heyne, S., Hirsch, M., Hjerm, M., Hochman, O., Hövermann, A., Hunger, S., Hunkler, C., Huth, N., Ignacz, Z., Jacobs, L., Jacobsen, J., Jaeger, B., Jungkunz, S., Jungmann, N., Kauff, M., Kleinert, M., Klinger, J., Kolb, J.-P., Kołczyńska, M., Kuk, J.S., Kunißen, K., Sinatra, D.K., Greinert, A., Lersch, P.M., Löbel, L.-M., Lutscher, P., Mader, M., Madia, J.E., Malancu, N., Maldonado, L., Marahrens, H., Martin, N., Martinez, P., Mayerl, J., MAYORGA, O.S.C.A.R.J., McManus, P., Wagner, K., Meeusen, C., Meierrieks, D., Mellon, J., Merhout, F., Merk, S., Meyer, D., Micheli, L., Mijs, J.J.B., Moya, C., Neunhoeffer, M., Nüst, D., Nygård, O., Ochsenfeld, F., Otte, G., Pechenkina, A., Prosser, C., Raes, L., Ralston, K., Ramos, M., Roets, A., Rogers, J., Ropers, G., Samuel, R., Sand, G., Schachter, A., Schaeffer, M., Schieferdecker, D., Schlueter, E., Schmidt, K., Schmidt, R., Schmidt-Catran, A., Schmiedeberg, C., Schneider, J., Schoonvelde, M., Schulte-Cloos, J., Schumann, S., Schunck, R., Schupp, J., Seuring, J., Silber, H., Sleegers, W.W.A., Sonntag, N., Staudt, A., Steiber, N., Steiner, N., Sternberg, S., Stiers, D., Stojmenovska, D., Storz, N., Striessnig, E., Stroppe, A.-K., Teltemann, J., Tibajev, A., Tung, B.B., Vagni, G., Van Assche, J., van der Linden, M., van der Noll, J., Van Hootegem, A., Vogtenhuber, S., Voicu, B., Wagemans, F., Wehl, N., Werner, H., Wiernik, B.M., Winter, F., Wolf, C., Yamada, Y., Zhang, N., Ziller, C., Zins, S., Żółtak, T., Nguyen, H.H.V.: Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 119, : e2203150119 (2022).
Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul, Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea Gabriele, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan Eliel, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, MAYORGA, OSCAR Jose, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J.B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gergor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Juergen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem W. A., Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, and Nguyen, Hung Hoang Viet. “Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 119.44 (2022): e2203150119.
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PMID: 36306328
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Preprint: 10.31222/osf.io/cd5j9
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