Covariate Selection for Estimating Individual Treatment Effects in Psychotherapy Research: A Simulation Study and Empirical Example

Wester RA, Rubel J, Mayer A (2021)
PsyArXiv.

Preprint | Veröffentlicht | Englisch
 
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Autor*in
Wester, Robin Anno; Rubel, Julian; Mayer, AxelUniBi
Abstract / Bemerkung
Estimating individual treatment effects (ITEs) is crucial to personalized psychotherapy. It depends on identifying all covariates that interact with treatment, a challenging task considering the many patient characteristics hypothesized to influence treatment outcome. The goal of this study was to compare different covariate selection strategies and their consequences of estimating ITEs. A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to compare stepwise regression with and without cross-validation and shrinkage methods. The study was designed to mimic the setting of psychotherapy studies. No single covariate selection strategy dominated all others across all factor-level combinations and on all performance measures. Lasso showed the most accurate out-of-sample predictions, identified the highest number of true treatment-covariate interactions, and estimated ITEs with the highest precision across the most conditions. Domain backward stepwise regression and backward stepwise regression using BIC were least biased in estimating variance of ITEs across the most conditions.
Stichworte
personalized medicine; individual treatment effects; machine learning; lasso; stepwise regression; depression
Erscheinungsjahr
2021
Zeitschriftentitel
PsyArXiv
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2955567

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Wester RA, Rubel J, Mayer A. Covariate Selection for Estimating Individual Treatment Effects in Psychotherapy Research: A Simulation Study and Empirical Example. PsyArXiv. 2021.
Wester, R. A., Rubel, J., & Mayer, A. (2021). Covariate Selection for Estimating Individual Treatment Effects in Psychotherapy Research: A Simulation Study and Empirical Example. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/t5843
Wester, R. A., Rubel, J., and Mayer, A. (2021). Covariate Selection for Estimating Individual Treatment Effects in Psychotherapy Research: A Simulation Study and Empirical Example. PsyArXiv.
Wester, R.A., Rubel, J., & Mayer, A., 2021. Covariate Selection for Estimating Individual Treatment Effects in Psychotherapy Research: A Simulation Study and Empirical Example. PsyArXiv.
R.A. Wester, J. Rubel, and A. Mayer, “Covariate Selection for Estimating Individual Treatment Effects in Psychotherapy Research: A Simulation Study and Empirical Example”, PsyArXiv, 2021.
Wester, R.A., Rubel, J., Mayer, A.: Covariate Selection for Estimating Individual Treatment Effects in Psychotherapy Research: A Simulation Study and Empirical Example. PsyArXiv. (2021).
Wester, Robin Anno, Rubel, Julian, and Mayer, Axel. “Covariate Selection for Estimating Individual Treatment Effects in Psychotherapy Research: A Simulation Study and Empirical Example”. PsyArXiv (2021).

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