{"unibi_person":"1","publisher":"Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics","series_title":"Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management","keyword":["Global warming","uncertainty","technology","policy implications"],"type":"working_paper","ddc":["330"],"date_created":"2025-03-17T12:55:35Z","place":"Bielefeld","user_id":"89573","_id":"3001592","doi":"10.4119/unibi/3001592","publication_identifier":{"issn":["2196-2723"]},"page":"21","department":[{"_id":"10031"}],"citation":{"frontiers":"Greiner, A. (2025). Causes of climate models uncertainty and implications for economic policy. <em>Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management</em>, 02-2025, Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.","mla":"Greiner, Alfred. <em>Causes of climate models uncertainty and implications for economic policy</em>. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics, 2025. Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management. 02-2025.","chicago":"<div style=\"text-indent:-25px; padding-left:25px;padding-bottom:0px;\">Greiner, Alfred. 2025. <em>Causes of climate models uncertainty and implications for economic policy</em>. Vol. 02-2025. Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.</div>","angewandte-chemie":"A.  Greiner, <em>Causes of climate models uncertainty and implications for economic policy</em>, Bielefeld University, Department Of Business Administration And Economics, Bielefeld, <strong>2025</strong>.","wels":"Greiner, A. (2025): Causes of climate models uncertainty and implications for economic policy. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.","ieee":" A. Greiner, <em>Causes of climate models uncertainty and implications for economic policy</em>, Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, vol. 02-2025,  Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics, 2025.","dgps":"<div style=\"text-indent:-25px; padding-left:25px;padding-bottom:0px;\">Greiner, A. (2025). <em>Causes of climate models uncertainty and implications for economic policy</em> (Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management). Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics. doi:10.4119/unibi/3001592.</div>","default":"Greiner A (2025)  Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management; 02-2025.<br />Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.","ama":"Greiner A. <em>Causes of climate models uncertainty and implications for economic policy</em>. Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management. Vol 02-2025. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics; 2025.","harvard1":"Greiner, A., 2025. <em>Causes of climate models uncertainty and implications for economic policy</em>, Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, no.02-2025, Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.","lncs":" Greiner, A.: Causes of climate models uncertainty and implications for economic policy. Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, 02-2025. Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics, Bielefeld (2025).","bio1":"Greiner A (2025) <br /><em>Causes of climate models uncertainty and implications for economic policy</em>. Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management; 02-2025.<br />Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.","apa":"Greiner, A. (2025).  <em>Causes of climate models uncertainty and implications for economic policy</em> (Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, 02-2025). Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.4119/unibi/3001592\" target=\"_blank\">https://doi.org/10.4119/unibi/3001592</a>","apa_indent":"<div style=\"text-indent:-25px; padding-left:25px;padding-bottom:0px;\">Greiner, A. (2025).  <em>Causes of climate models uncertainty and implications for economic policy</em> (Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, 02-2025). Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.4119/unibi/3001592\" target=\"_blank\">https://doi.org/10.4119/unibi/3001592</a></div>"},"file":[{"success":1,"date_created":"2025-03-17T12:32:35Z","file_id":"3001593","relation":"main_file","access_level":"open_access","date_updated":"2025-03-17T12:32:35Z","file_name":"wpaper_02-2025.pdf","file_size":2032049,"content_type":"application/pdf","checksum":"82e8ce71d727de5bfe452bcf4c9debc4"}],"title":"Causes of climate models uncertainty and implications for economic policy","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"first_contributor":"Greiner, Alfred","jel":["E61","Q54"],"volume":"02-2025","date_updated":"2025-03-17T12:59:19Z","year":"2025","urn":"urn:nbn:de:0070-pub-30015926","oa":"1","author":[{"first_name":"Alfred","full_name":"Greiner, Alfred","department":[{"_id":"10031"}],"last_name":"Greiner","id":"41164"}],"status":"public","locked":"1","file_date_updated":"2025-03-17T12:32:35Z","abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"In this paper it is shown that climate models are characterized by uncertainty\r\nand its causes are pointed out. It is well known that a higher greenhouse gas concentration raises the radiative forcing of the earth and the physics behind it is well\r\nunderstood. However, as regards the feedback effects of higher temperatures, parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and the chaotic nature of the climate system\r\ngive rise to a considerable degree of ignorance regarding the climate system. Given\r\nthis uncertainty costly **_CO2_** abatement measures are difficult to justify with the\r\ncurrently available technology. But, due to technical progress more efficient tech-\r\nnologies are expected to reduce abatement costs in the future such that a net zero\r\nemission policy could be justified to avoid possible, but uncertain, climate damages.\r\nIn any case, fixing a deadline by which the net zero goal must be met is not welfare\r\nmaximizing and more flexibility is needed to avoid prohibitive costs."}],"type_old":["workingPaper","workingpaper","working_paper"],"publication_status":"published"}