{"first_contributor":"Tolkmitt, Frederik Jan","ddc":["330"],"place":"Bielefeld","type":"working_paper","user_id":"89573","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","title":"The Uncertainty Effect in Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Market Model with Opposing Information Sources","abstract":[{"text":"When consumers are uncertain whether they have sufficient and unambiguous information regarding\r\na new product, they might delay the adoption decision to a later point in time. This\r\n“uncertainty effect” can have a major impact on the product’s market diffusion. Prior models\r\nthat account for consumers’ belief updating in such a setting usually capture that effect by resorting\r\nto some form of Bayesian learning and, in so doing, typically assume that the distribution\r\nof information with respect to the attributes of the new product is normal and that the information\r\npoints received by individual consumers are independent draws from this distribution.\r\nConsequently, consumers’ uncertainty regarding their beliefs decreases with more information\r\n(e.g., after talking with a peer). This strong assumption is convenient as it makes models of\r\nopinion dynamics analytically tractable, and it works in most instances. However, when inconsistent\r\ninformation is provided from two opposing sources and, thus, receiving additional\r\ninformation potentially increases uncertainty of individual consumers, a different approach is required.\r\nCorresponding markets, for example, can be found for radically new products for which\r\nconsumers have strong opinions or as a result of a disinformation campaign by some competitor.\r\nWe propose an approach that can deal with such a setting and we demonstrate the value added\r\nof this novel approach (in contrast to the traditional Bayesian approach) through computational\r\nsimulation experiments with an agent-based market model of innovation diffusion.","lang":"eng"}],"locked":"1","date_updated":"2025-03-03T08:03:36Z","author":[{"last_name":"Tolkmitt","full_name":"Tolkmitt, Frederik Jan","id":"377230572","department":[{"_id":"38171018"}],"first_name":"Frederik Jan"},{"first_name":"Christian","orcid":"0000-0001-5495-5740","department":[{"_id":"38171018"}],"last_name":"Stummer","id":"18839152","full_name":"Stummer, Christian"}],"series_title":"Center for Uncertainty Studies Working Papers","type_old":["workingPaper","workingpaper","working_paper"],"publication_status":"published","file_date_updated":"2025-03-03T07:37:24Z","doi":"10.4119/unibi/2994669","intvolume":"         7","date_created":"2024-11-26T09:51:08Z","file":[{"content_type":"application/pdf","success":1,"file_name":"CeUS_WP7_Tolkmitt_Stummer.pdf","file_size":4581178,"date_created":"2025-03-03T07:37:24Z","access_level":"open_access","relation":"main_file","checksum":"e3fd66864b287fe1b24a6523d1fd44e8","date_updated":"2025-03-03T07:37:24Z","file_id":"3001122"}],"keyword":["multi-agent systems","innovation adoption","consumer uncertainty","market diffusion","simulation experiment"],"publisher":"Universität Bielefeld, Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS)","page":"59","department":[{"_id":"38171018"}],"citation":{"ama":"Tolkmitt FJ, Stummer C. <em>The Uncertainty Effect in Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Market Model with Opposing Information Sources</em>. Center for Uncertainty Studies Working Papers. Vol 7. Bielefeld: Universität Bielefeld, Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS); 2024.","angewandte-chemie":"F. J.  Tolkmitt, and C.  Stummer, <em>The Uncertainty Effect in Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Market Model with Opposing Information Sources</em>, Universität Bielefeld, Center For Uncertainty Studies (Ceus), Bielefeld, <strong>2024</strong>.","dgps":"<div style=\"text-indent:-25px; padding-left:25px;padding-bottom:0px;\">Tolkmitt, F.J. &amp; Stummer, C. (2024). <em>The Uncertainty Effect in Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Market Model with Opposing Information Sources</em> (Center for Uncertainty Studies Working Papers). Bielefeld: Universität Bielefeld, Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS). doi:10.4119/unibi/2994669.</div>","apa":"Tolkmitt, F. J., &amp; Stummer, C. (2024).  <em>The Uncertainty Effect in Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Market Model with Opposing Information Sources</em> (Center for Uncertainty Studies Working Papers, 7). Bielefeld: Universität Bielefeld, Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS). <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.4119/unibi/2994669\" target=\"_blank\">https://doi.org/10.4119/unibi/2994669</a>","wels":"Tolkmitt, F. J.; Stummer, C. (2024): The Uncertainty Effect in Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Market Model with Opposing Information Sources. Bielefeld: Universität Bielefeld, Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS).","default":"Tolkmitt FJ, Stummer C (2024)  Center for Uncertainty Studies Working Papers; 7.<br />Bielefeld: Universität Bielefeld, Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS).","chicago":"<div style=\"text-indent:-25px; padding-left:25px;padding-bottom:0px;\">Tolkmitt, Frederik Jan, and Stummer, Christian. 2024. <em>The Uncertainty Effect in Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Market Model with Opposing Information Sources</em>. Vol. 7. Center for Uncertainty Studies Working Papers. Bielefeld: Universität Bielefeld, Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS).</div>","lncs":" Tolkmitt, F.J., Stummer, C.: The Uncertainty Effect in Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Market Model with Opposing Information Sources. Center for Uncertainty Studies Working Papers, 7. Universität Bielefeld, Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS), Bielefeld (2024).","ieee":" F.J. Tolkmitt and C. Stummer, <em>The Uncertainty Effect in Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Market Model with Opposing Information Sources</em>, Center for Uncertainty Studies Working Papers, vol. 7,  Bielefeld: Universität Bielefeld, Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS), 2024.","frontiers":"Tolkmitt, F. J., and Stummer, C. (2024). The Uncertainty Effect in Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Market Model with Opposing Information Sources. <em>Center for Uncertainty Studies Working Papers</em>, 7, Bielefeld: Universität Bielefeld, Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS).","mla":"Tolkmitt, Frederik Jan, and Stummer, Christian. <em>The Uncertainty Effect in Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Market Model with Opposing Information Sources</em>. Bielefeld: Universität Bielefeld, Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS), 2024. Center for Uncertainty Studies Working Papers. 7.","apa_indent":"<div style=\"text-indent:-25px; padding-left:25px;padding-bottom:0px;\">Tolkmitt, F. J., &amp; Stummer, C. (2024).  <em>The Uncertainty Effect in Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Market Model with Opposing Information Sources</em> (Center for Uncertainty Studies Working Papers, 7). Bielefeld: Universität Bielefeld, Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS). <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.4119/unibi/2994669\" target=\"_blank\">https://doi.org/10.4119/unibi/2994669</a></div>","harvard1":"Tolkmitt, F.J., &amp; Stummer, C., 2024. <em>The Uncertainty Effect in Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Market Model with Opposing Information Sources</em>, Center for Uncertainty Studies Working Papers, no.7, Bielefeld: Universität Bielefeld, Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS).","bio1":"Tolkmitt FJ, Stummer C (2024) <br /><em>The Uncertainty Effect in Innovation Diffusion: An Agent-Based Market Model with Opposing Information Sources</em>. Center for Uncertainty Studies Working Papers; 7.<br />Bielefeld: Universität Bielefeld, Center for Uncertainty Studies (CeUS)."},"publication_identifier":{"issn":["2941-2358"]},"volume":7,"status":"public","_id":"2994669","oa":1,"urn":"urn:nbn:de:0070-pub-29946694","year":"2024","unibi_person":1}