Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries

Costa D, Rohleder S, Bozorgmehr K (2024)
BMC Public Health 24(1): 2341.

Zeitschriftenaufsatz | Veröffentlicht | Englisch
 
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Abstract / Bemerkung
**Abstract**

**Purpose**
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the cornerstone of COVID-19 pandemic control, but evidence on their effectiveness varies according to the methods and approaches taken to empirical analysis. We analysed the impact of NPIs on incident SARS-CoV-2 across 32 European countries (March-December 2020) using two NPI trackers: the Corona Virus Pandemic Policy Monitor – COV-PPM, and the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker – OxCGRT.

**Methods**
NPIs were summarized through principal component analysis into three sets, stratified by two waves (C1-C3, weeks 5–25, and C4-C6, weeks 35–52). Longitudinal, multi-level mixed-effects negative binomial regression models were fitted to estimate incidence rate ratios for cases and deaths considering different time-lags and reverse causation (i.e. changing incidence causing NPIs), stratified by waves and geographical regions (Western, Eastern, Northern, Southern, Others).

**Results**
During the first wave, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport, public events, and public spaces (C1) and healthcare system improvements, border closures and restrictions to public institutions (C2) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence after 28 and 35-days. Mask policies (C3) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence (except after 35-days). During wave 1, C1 and C2 were associated with a decrease in deaths after 49-days and C3 after 21, 28 and 35-days. During wave 2, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport and healthcare system improvements (C5) were also associated with a decrease in SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths across all countries.

**Conclusion**
In the absence of pre-existing immunity, vaccines or treatment options, our results suggest that the observed implementation of different categories of NPIs, showed varied associations with SARS-CoV-2 incidence and deaths across regions, and varied associations across waves. These relationships were consistent across components of NPIs derived from two policy trackers (CoV-PPM and OxCGRT).

Stichworte
Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Covid-19; Europe; Natural experiment; Multi-level modelling; Infectious diseases
Erscheinungsjahr
2024
Zeitschriftentitel
BMC Public Health
Band
24
Ausgabe
1
Art.-Nr.
2341
eISSN
1471-2458
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2992162

Zitieren

Costa D, Rohleder S, Bozorgmehr K. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries. BMC Public Health. 2024;24(1): 2341.
Costa, D., Rohleder, S., & Bozorgmehr, K. (2024). Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries. BMC Public Health, 24(1), 2341. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-19799-7
Costa, Diogo, Rohleder, Sven, and Bozorgmehr, Kayvan. 2024. “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries”. BMC Public Health 24 (1): 2341.
Costa, D., Rohleder, S., and Bozorgmehr, K. (2024). Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries. BMC Public Health 24:2341.
Costa, D., Rohleder, S., & Bozorgmehr, K., 2024. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries. BMC Public Health, 24(1): 2341.
D. Costa, S. Rohleder, and K. Bozorgmehr, “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries”, BMC Public Health, vol. 24, 2024, : 2341.
Costa, D., Rohleder, S., Bozorgmehr, K.: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries. BMC Public Health. 24, : 2341 (2024).
Costa, Diogo, Rohleder, Sven, and Bozorgmehr, Kayvan. “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries”. BMC Public Health 24.1 (2024): 2341.
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2024-08-30T05:56:47Z
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