Identifying important individual- and country-level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: A machine learning analysis

Douglas KM, Sutton RM, Van Lissa CJ, Stroebe W, Kreienkamp J, Agostini M, Belanger JJ, Gützkow B, Abakoumkin G, Khaiyom JHA, Ahmedi V, et al. (2023)
European Journal of Social Psychology .

Zeitschriftenaufsatz | E-Veröff. vor dem Druck | Englisch
 
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Autor*in
Douglas, Karen M.; Sutton, Robbie M.; Van Lissa, Caspar J.; Stroebe, Wolfgang; Kreienkamp, Jannis; Agostini, Maximilian; Belanger, Jocelyn J.; Gützkow, Ben; Abakoumkin, Georgios; Khaiyom, Jamilah Hanum Abdul; Ahmedi, Vjollca; Akkas, Handan
Alle
Abstract / Bemerkung
Psychological research on the predictors of conspiracy theorizing-explaining important social and political events or circumstances as secret plots by malevolent groups-has flourished in recent years. However, research has typically examined only a small number of predictors in one, or a small number of, national contexts. Such approaches make it difficult to examine the relative importance of predictors, and risk overlooking some potentially relevant variables altogether. To overcome this limitation, the present study used machine learning to rank-order the importance of 115 individual- and country-level variables in predicting conspiracy theorizing. Data were collected from 56,072 respondents across 28 countries during the early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic. Echoing previous findings, important predictors at the individual level included societal discontent, paranoia, and personal struggle. Contrary to prior research, important country-level predictors included indicators of political stability and effective government COVID response, which suggests that conspiracy theorizing may thrive in relatively well-functioning democracies.
Stichworte
conspiracy theories; country-level variables; COVID-19; machine; learning; individual-level variables
Erscheinungsjahr
2023
Zeitschriftentitel
European Journal of Social Psychology
ISSN
0046-2772
eISSN
1099-0992
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2982427

Zitieren

Douglas KM, Sutton RM, Van Lissa CJ, et al. Identifying important individual- and country-level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: A machine learning analysis. European Journal of Social Psychology . 2023.
Douglas, K. M., Sutton, R. M., Van Lissa, C. J., Stroebe, W., Kreienkamp, J., Agostini, M., Belanger, J. J., et al. (2023). Identifying important individual- and country-level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: A machine learning analysis. European Journal of Social Psychology . https://doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.2968
Douglas, Karen M., Sutton, Robbie M., Van Lissa, Caspar J., Stroebe, Wolfgang, Kreienkamp, Jannis, Agostini, Maximilian, Belanger, Jocelyn J., et al. 2023. “Identifying important individual- and country-level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: A machine learning analysis”. European Journal of Social Psychology .
Douglas, K. M., Sutton, R. M., Van Lissa, C. J., Stroebe, W., Kreienkamp, J., Agostini, M., Belanger, J. J., Gützkow, B., Abakoumkin, G., Khaiyom, J. H. A., et al. (2023). Identifying important individual- and country-level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: A machine learning analysis. European Journal of Social Psychology .
Douglas, K.M., et al., 2023. Identifying important individual- and country-level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: A machine learning analysis. European Journal of Social Psychology .
K.M. Douglas, et al., “Identifying important individual- and country-level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: A machine learning analysis”, European Journal of Social Psychology , 2023.
Douglas, K.M., Sutton, R.M., Van Lissa, C.J., Stroebe, W., Kreienkamp, J., Agostini, M., Belanger, J.J., Gützkow, B., Abakoumkin, G., Khaiyom, J.H.A., Ahmedi, V., Akkas, H., Almenara, C.A., Atta, M., Bagci, S.C., Basel, S., Berisha Kida, E., Bernardo, A.B.I., Buttrick, N.R., Chobthamkit, P., Choi, H.-S., Cristea, M., Csaba, S., Damnjanovic, K., Danyliuk, I., Dash, A., Di Santo, D., Enea, V., Faller, D.G., Fitzsimons, G., Gheorghiu, A., Gomez, A., Hamaidia, A., Han, Q., Helmy, M., Hudiyana, J., Jeronimus, B.F., Yu Jiang, D., Jovanovic, V., Kamenov, Z., Kende, A., Keng, S.-L., Kieu, T.T.T., Koc, Y., Kovyazina, K., Kozytska, I., Krause, J., Kruglanski, A.W., Kurapov, A., Kutlaca, M., Lantos, N.A., Lemay, Edward P., J., Lesmana, C.B.J., Louis, W.R., Lueders, A., Malik, N.I., Martinez, A., McCabe, K.O., Mehulic, J., Milla, M.N., Mohammed, I., Molinario, E., Moyano, M., Muhammad, H., Mula, S., Muluk, H., Myroniuk, S., Najafi, R., Nisa, C.F., Nyul, B., O'Keefe, P.A., Olivas Osuna, J.J., Osin, E.N., Park, J., Pica, G., Pierro, A., Rees, J., Reitsema, A.M., Resta, E., Rullo, M., Ryan, M.K., Samekin, A., Santtila, P., Sasin, E., Schumpe, B.M., Selim, H.A., Stanton, M.V., Sultana, S., Tseliou, E., Utsugi, A., van Breen, J.A., Van Veen, K., vanDellen, M.R., Vazquez, A., Wollast, R., Yeung, V.W.-L., Zand, S., Zezelj, I.L., Zheng, B., Zick, A., Zuniga, C., Leander, N.P.: Identifying important individual- and country-level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: A machine learning analysis. European Journal of Social Psychology . (2023).
Douglas, Karen M., Sutton, Robbie M., Van Lissa, Caspar J., Stroebe, Wolfgang, Kreienkamp, Jannis, Agostini, Maximilian, Belanger, Jocelyn J., Gützkow, Ben, Abakoumkin, Georgios, Khaiyom, Jamilah Hanum Abdul, Ahmedi, Vjollca, Akkas, Handan, Almenara, Carlos A., Atta, Mohsin, Bagci, Sabahat Cigdem, Basel, Sima, Berisha Kida, Edona, Bernardo, Allan B. I., Buttrick, Nicholas R., Chobthamkit, Phatthanakit, Choi, Hoon-Seok, Cristea, Mioara, Csaba, Sara, Damnjanovic, Kaja, Danyliuk, Ivan, Dash, Arobindu, Di Santo, Daniela, Enea, Violeta, Faller, Daiane Gracieli, Fitzsimons, Gavan, Gheorghiu, Alexandra, Gomez, Angel, Hamaidia, Ali, Han, Qing, Helmy, Mai, Hudiyana, Joevarian, Jeronimus, Bertus F., Yu Jiang, Ding, Jovanovic, Veljko, Kamenov, Zeljka, Kende, Anna, Keng, Shian-Ling, Kieu, Tra Thi Thanh, Koc, Yasin, Kovyazina, Kamila, Kozytska, Inna, Krause, Joshua, Kruglanski, Arie W., Kurapov, Anton, Kutlaca, Maja, Lantos, Nora Anna, Lemay, Edward P., Jr., Lesmana, Cokorda Bagus Jaya, Louis, Winnifred R., Lueders, Adrian, Malik, Najma Iqbal, Martinez, Anton, McCabe, Kira O., Mehulic, Jasmina, Milla, Mirra Noor, Mohammed, Idris, Molinario, Erica, Moyano, Manuel, Muhammad, Hayat, Mula, Silvana, Muluk, Hamdi, Myroniuk, Solomiia, Najafi, Reza, Nisa, Claudia F., Nyul, Boglarka, O'Keefe, Paul A., Olivas Osuna, Jose Javier, Osin, Evgeny N., Park, Joonha, Pica, Gennaro, Pierro, Antonio, Rees, Jonas, Reitsema, Anne Margit, Resta, Elena, Rullo, Marika, Ryan, Michelle K., Samekin, Adil, Santtila, Pekka, Sasin, Edyta, Schumpe, Birga M., Selim, Heyla A., Stanton, Michael Vicente, Sultana, Samiah, Tseliou, Eleftheria, Utsugi, Akira, van Breen, Jolien Anne, Van Veen, Kees, vanDellen, Michelle R., Vazquez, Alexandra, Wollast, Robin, Yeung, Victoria Wai-Lan, Zand, Somayeh, Zezelj, Iris L., Zheng, Bang, Zick, Andreas, Zuniga, Claudia, and Leander, N. Pontus. “Identifying important individual- and country-level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: A machine learning analysis”. European Journal of Social Psychology (2023).
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