Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data

Voeltz D, Brinks R, Tönnies T, Hoyer A (2023)
BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care 11(2): e003156.

Zeitschriftenaufsatz | Veröffentlicht | Englisch
 
Download
OA 3.16 MB
Autor*in
Voeltz, DinaUniBi ; Brinks, Ralph; Tönnies, Thaddäus; Hoyer, AnnikaUniBi
Abstract / Bemerkung
**Introduction**
We aim to project the number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany between 2010 and 2040. **Research design and methods**
We first estimate the age-specific and sex-specific incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in Germany in 2010 using data from 65 million insurees of the German statutory health insurance. Then, we use the illness-death model to project the prevalence of type 1 diabetes until 2040. We alter the incidence and mortality underlying the illness-death model in several scenarios to explore the impact of possible temporal trends on the number of people with type 1 diabetes. **Results**
Applying the prevalence from 2010 to the official population projections of Germany’s Federal Statistical Office yields a total number of 252 000 people with type 1 diabetes in Germany in 2040 (+1% compared with 2010). Incorporating different annual trends of the incidence and mortality in the projection model results in a future number of people with type 1 diabetes between 292 000 (+18%) and 327 000 (+32%). **Conclusions**
For the first time in Germany, we provide estimates for the incidence, prevalence, and number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes for the whole German population between 2010 and 2040. The relative increase of the people with type 1 diabetes ranges from 1% to 32% in 2040 compared with 2010. The projected results are mainly influenced by temporal trends in the incidence. Ignoring these trends, that is, applying a constant prevalence to population projections, probably underestimates future chronic disease numbers.
Erscheinungsjahr
2023
Zeitschriftentitel
BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care
Band
11
Ausgabe
2
Art.-Nr.
e003156
eISSN
2052-4897
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2978063

Zitieren

Voeltz D, Brinks R, Tönnies T, Hoyer A. Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data. BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care. 2023;11(2): e003156.
Voeltz, D., Brinks, R., Tönnies, T., & Hoyer, A. (2023). Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data. BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care, 11(2), e003156. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjdrc-2022-003156
Voeltz, Dina, Brinks, Ralph, Tönnies, Thaddäus, and Hoyer, Annika. 2023. “Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data”. BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care 11 (2): e003156.
Voeltz, D., Brinks, R., Tönnies, T., and Hoyer, A. (2023). Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data. BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care 11:e003156.
Voeltz, D., et al., 2023. Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data. BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care, 11(2): e003156.
D. Voeltz, et al., “Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data”, BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care, vol. 11, 2023, : e003156.
Voeltz, D., Brinks, R., Tönnies, T., Hoyer, A.: Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data. BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care. 11, : e003156 (2023).
Voeltz, Dina, Brinks, Ralph, Tönnies, Thaddäus, and Hoyer, Annika. “Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data”. BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care 11.2 (2023): e003156.
Alle Dateien verfügbar unter der/den folgenden Lizenz(en):
Creative Commons Namensnennung-Nicht kommerziell 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0):
Volltext(e)
Name
Access Level
OA Open Access
Zuletzt Hochgeladen
2023-04-11T08:07:46Z
MD5 Prüfsumme
e90d7f49684cbc53c2d65cb42c8e00a3


Link(s) zu Volltext(en)
Access Level
OA Open Access

Export

Markieren/ Markierung löschen
Markierte Publikationen

Open Data PUB

Web of Science

Dieser Datensatz im Web of Science®
Quellen

PMID: 37024151
PubMed | Europe PMC

Suchen in

Google Scholar