Predicting play calls in the National Football League using hidden Markov models

Ötting M (2021)
IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 32(4): 535-545.

Zeitschriftenaufsatz | Veröffentlicht | Englisch
 
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Abstract / Bemerkung
In recent years, data-driven approaches have become a popular tool in a variety of sports to gain an advantage by, for example, analysing potential strategies of opponents. Whereas the availability of play-by-play or player tracking data in sports such as basketball and baseball has led to an increase of sports analytics studies, equivalent data sets for the National Football League (NFL) were not freely available for a long time. In this contribution, we consider a comprehensive play-by-play NFL dataset provided by www.kaggle.com, comprising 289,191 observations in total, to predict play calls in the NFL using hidden Markov models. The resulting out-of-sample prediction accuracy for the 2018 NFL season is 71.6%, which is similar compared to existing studies on play call predictions in the NFL. In practice, such predictions are helpful for NFL teams, especially for defense coordinators, to make adjustments in real time on the field.
Stichworte
hidden Markov model; National Football League; sports analytics
Erscheinungsjahr
2021
Zeitschriftentitel
IMA Journal of Management Mathematics
Band
32
Ausgabe
4
Seite(n)
535-545
ISSN
1471-678X
eISSN
1471-6798
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2957740

Zitieren

Ötting M. Predicting play calls in the National Football League using hidden Markov models. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 2021;32(4):535-545.
Ötting, M. (2021). Predicting play calls in the National Football League using hidden Markov models. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 32(4), 535-545. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpab005
Ötting, M. (2021). Predicting play calls in the National Football League using hidden Markov models. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 32, 535-545.
Ötting, M., 2021. Predicting play calls in the National Football League using hidden Markov models. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 32(4), p 535-545.
M. Ötting, “Predicting play calls in the National Football League using hidden Markov models”, IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, vol. 32, 2021, pp. 535-545.
Ötting, M.: Predicting play calls in the National Football League using hidden Markov models. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 32, 535-545 (2021).
Ötting, Marius. “Predicting play calls in the National Football League using hidden Markov models”. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 32.4 (2021): 535-545.

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