How to design virus containment polices? A joint analysis of economic and epidemic dynamics under the COVID-19 pandemic

Basurto A, Dawid H, Harting P, Hepp J, Kohlweyer D (2021) Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management; 06-2021.
Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.

Diskussionspapier | Veröffentlicht | Englisch
 
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Abstract / Bemerkung
We analyze the impact of different designs of COVID-19 related lockdown policies on economic loss and mortality using a micro-level simulation model, which combines a multisectoral closed economy with an epidemic transmission model. In particular, the model captures explicitly the (stochastic) effect of interactions between heterogeneous agents during different economic activities on virus transmissions. The empirical validity of the model is established using data on economic and pandemic dynamics in Germany in the first six months after the COVID-19 outbreak. We show that a policy inducing switches between a strict lockdown and a full opening-up of economic activity is strictly dominated by alternative policies, which implement either a much more cautious opening at the end of the lockdown or a more or less continuous light lockdown with only minor restrictions of economic activity. Furthermore, also the ex-ante variance of the economic loss suffered during the pandemic is substantially lower under these policies. Keeping the other policy parameters fixed, a variation of the consumption restrictions during the lockdown induces a trade-off between GDP loss and mortality. Finally, we study the robustness of these findings with respect to the occurrence of a more infectious virus mutation.
Stichworte
COVID-19; economic loss; containment policy; variance of policy effects; agentbased modeling; etace_WP
Erscheinungsjahr
2021
Serientitel
Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management
Band
06-2021
Seite(n)
61
ISSN
2196-2723
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2952428

Zitieren

Basurto A, Dawid H, Harting P, Hepp J, Kohlweyer D. How to design virus containment polices? A joint analysis of economic and epidemic dynamics under the COVID-19 pandemic. Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management. Vol 06-2021. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics; 2021.
Basurto, A., Dawid, H., Harting, P., Hepp, J., & Kohlweyer, D. (2021). How to design virus containment polices? A joint analysis of economic and epidemic dynamics under the COVID-19 pandemic (Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, 06-2021). Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics. https://doi.org/10.4119/unibi/2952428
Basurto, A., Dawid, H., Harting, P., Hepp, J., and Kohlweyer, D. (2021). How to design virus containment polices? A joint analysis of economic and epidemic dynamics under the COVID-19 pandemic. Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, 06-2021, Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.
Basurto, A., et al., 2021. How to design virus containment polices? A joint analysis of economic and epidemic dynamics under the COVID-19 pandemic, Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, no.06-2021, Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.
A. Basurto, et al., How to design virus containment polices? A joint analysis of economic and epidemic dynamics under the COVID-19 pandemic, Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, vol. 06-2021, Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics, 2021.
Basurto, A., Dawid, H., Harting, P., Hepp, J., Kohlweyer, D.: How to design virus containment polices? A joint analysis of economic and epidemic dynamics under the COVID-19 pandemic. Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, 06-2021. Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics, Bielefeld (2021).
Basurto, Alessandro, Dawid, Herbert, Harting, Philipp, Hepp, Jasper, and Kohlweyer, Dirk. How to design virus containment polices? A joint analysis of economic and epidemic dynamics under the COVID-19 pandemic. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics, 2021. Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management. 06-2021.
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2021-03-05T13:18:39Z
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