From prejudice to racial profiling and back. A naἴve intuitive statistician's curse

Förster M, Karos D (2021) Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers; 644.
Bielefeld: Center for Mathematical Economics.

Diskussionspapier | Veröffentlicht | Englisch
 
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Abstract / Bemerkung
A designer conducts random searches to detect criminals, and may condition the search probability on individuals' appearance. She updates her belief about the distribution of criminals across appearances using her search results, but incorrectly takes her sample distribution for the population distribution. In equilibrium she employs optimal search probabilities given her belief, and her belief is consistent with her findings. We show that she will be discriminating an appearance if and only if she overestimates the probability of this appearance's being criminal. Moreover, in a linear model, tightening her budget will worsen the situation of those most discriminated against.
Stichworte
Biased inference; police search; naἴve intuitive statistics; racial profiling; discrimination
Erscheinungsjahr
2021
Serientitel
Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers
Band
644
Seite(n)
26
ISSN
0931-6558
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2952189

Zitieren

Förster M, Karos D. From prejudice to racial profiling and back. A naἴve intuitive statistician's curse. Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers. Vol 644. Bielefeld: Center for Mathematical Economics; 2021.
Förster, M., & Karos, D. (2021). From prejudice to racial profiling and back. A naἴve intuitive statistician's curse (Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers, 644). Bielefeld: Center for Mathematical Economics.
Förster, M., and Karos, D. (2021). From prejudice to racial profiling and back. A naἴve intuitive statistician's curse. Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers, 644, Bielefeld: Center for Mathematical Economics.
Förster, M., & Karos, D., 2021. From prejudice to racial profiling and back. A naἴve intuitive statistician's curse, Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers, no.644, Bielefeld: Center for Mathematical Economics.
M. Förster and D. Karos, From prejudice to racial profiling and back. A naἴve intuitive statistician's curse, Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers, vol. 644, Bielefeld: Center for Mathematical Economics, 2021.
Förster, M., Karos, D.: From prejudice to racial profiling and back. A naἴve intuitive statistician's curse. Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers, 644. Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld (2021).
Förster, Manuel, and Karos, Dominik. From prejudice to racial profiling and back. A naἴve intuitive statistician's curse. Bielefeld: Center for Mathematical Economics, 2021. Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers. 644.
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2021-03-01T12:36:08Z
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