Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance?

Winkelmann D, Ötting M, Deutscher C (2020) Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management; 06-2020, Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020.
Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.

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Abstract / Bemerkung
Research on sports betting often identifies biased evaluation by bookmakers and corresponding opportunities for profitable strategies to bettors. Such studies repeatedly provide evidence for the existence of biased betting odds for different periods and leagues, leaving the impression that inefficiencies are very common. Since most studies cover only a few seasons, the question remains whether these market inefficiencies persist over time. We review the literature on the big five leagues in European association football and then analyse 14 seasons to detect the occurrence and duration of betting market inefficiencies. While our results replicate the temporal findings of previous research, they also show that biases do not persist systematically over time and across leagues. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo simulation reveals that the number of inefficient periods barely exceeds what would be expected in an efficient market.
Stichworte
Betting Markets; Biases; Market Efficiency; Monte Carlo Simulation
Erscheinungsjahr
2020
Serientitel
Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management
Band
06-2020
Seite(n)
31
ISSN
2196-2723
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2949467

Zitieren

Winkelmann D, Ötting M, Deutscher C. Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance?. Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management. Vol 06-2020 Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics; 2020.
Winkelmann, D., Ötting, M., & Deutscher, C. (2020). Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance? (Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, 06-2020) Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics. doi:10.4119/unibi/2949467
Winkelmann, D., Ötting, M., and Deutscher, C. (2020). Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance? Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, 06-2020, Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.
Winkelmann, D., Ötting, M., & Deutscher, C., 2020. Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance?, Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, no.06-2020, Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020., Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.
D. Winkelmann, M. Ötting, and C. Deutscher, Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance?, Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, vol. 06-2020, Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020., Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics, 2020.
Winkelmann, D., Ötting, M., Deutscher, C.: Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance? Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, 06-2020, Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020. Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics, Bielefeld (2020).
Winkelmann, David, Ötting, Marius, and Deutscher, Christian. Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance?. Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics, 2020. Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management. 06-2020.
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2020-12-16T08:36:50Z
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Short and long-term biases in European football pre-game betting markets
Winkelmann D, Ötting M, Deutscher C (2020) Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management; 06-2020.
Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.

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