Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance?
Winkelmann D, Ötting M, Deutscher C (2020) Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management; 06-2020, Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020.
Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.
Diskussionspapier
| Veröffentlicht | Englisch
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Einrichtung
Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Department Management Science & Business Analytics
Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Lehrstuhl für BWL, Controlling & Produktionswirtschaft
Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Lehrstuhl für Statistik und Datenanalyse
Fakultät für Psychologie und Sportwissenschaft > Abteilung Sportwissenschaft > Arbeitsbereich V - Sport und Wirtschaft
Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Lehrstuhl für BWL, Controlling & Produktionswirtschaft
Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Lehrstuhl für Statistik und Datenanalyse
Fakultät für Psychologie und Sportwissenschaft > Abteilung Sportwissenschaft > Arbeitsbereich V - Sport und Wirtschaft
Projekt
Abstract / Bemerkung
Research on sports betting often identifies biased evaluation by bookmakers and
corresponding opportunities for profitable strategies to bettors. Such studies
repeatedly provide evidence for the existence of biased betting odds for different
periods and leagues, leaving the impression that inefficiencies are very common.
Since most studies cover only a few seasons, the question remains whether these
market inefficiencies persist over time. We review the literature on the big five
leagues in European association football and then analyse 14 seasons to detect
the occurrence and duration of betting market inefficiencies. While our results
replicate the temporal findings of previous research, they also show that biases do
not persist systematically over time and across leagues. Furthermore, a Monte
Carlo simulation reveals that the number of inefficient periods barely exceeds
what would be expected in an efficient market.
Stichworte
Betting Markets;
Biases;
Market Efficiency;
Monte Carlo Simulation
Erscheinungsjahr
2020
Serientitel
Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management
Band
06-2020
Seite(n)
31
Urheberrecht / Lizenzen
ISSN
2196-2723
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2949467
Zitieren
Winkelmann D, Ötting M, Deutscher C. Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance?. Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management. Vol 06-2020 Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics; 2020.
Winkelmann, D., Ötting, M., & Deutscher, C. (2020). Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance? (Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, 06-2020) Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics. https://doi.org/10.4119/unibi/2949467
Winkelmann, David, Ötting, Marius, and Deutscher, Christian. 2020. Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance?. Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020. Vol. 06-2020. Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.
Winkelmann, D., Ötting, M., and Deutscher, C. (2020). Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance? Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, 06-2020, Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.
Winkelmann, D., Ötting, M., & Deutscher, C., 2020. Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance?, Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, no.06-2020, Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020., Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.
D. Winkelmann, M. Ötting, and C. Deutscher, Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance?, Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, vol. 06-2020, Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020., Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics, 2020.
Winkelmann, D., Ötting, M., Deutscher, C.: Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance? Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management, 06-2020, Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020. Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics, Bielefeld (2020).
Winkelmann, David, Ötting, Marius, and Deutscher, Christian. Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football – Bookmakers’ Mispricing or Pure Chance?. Aktual. Version, Dec. 2020. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics, 2020. Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management. 06-2020.
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Material in PUB:
Frühere Version
Short and long-term biases in European football pre-game betting markets
Winkelmann D, Ötting M, Deutscher C (2020) Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management; 06-2020.
Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.
Winkelmann D, Ötting M, Deutscher C (2020) Universität Bielefeld Working Papers in Economics and Management; 06-2020.
Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics.