How do bookmakers interpret running performance of teams in previous games? Evidence from the Football Bundesliga

Soebbing BP, Wicker P, Weimar D, Orlowski J (2021)
Journal of Sports Economics 22(3): 231-250.

Zeitschriftenaufsatz | Veröffentlicht | Englisch
 
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DOI
Autor*in
Soebbing, Brian P.; Wicker, PamelaUniBi; Weimar, Daniel; Orlowski, Johannes
Einrichtung
Fakultät für Psychologie und Sportwissenschaft > Abteilung Sportwissenschaft > Arbeitsbereich III - Sport und Gesellschaft
Abstract / Bemerkung
This study examines how running performance (intensive runs, total distance covered) of football teams in previous games impacts betting markets as it relates to expected win probability. Theoretically, bookmakers could interpret team's running performance as effort or fatigue, with sports science studies suggesting that distance covered reflects effort and intensive runs signal fatigue. Using data from the 2011/12-2018/19 seasons of the German Bundesliga, beta regression models reveal that bookmakers interpret team's running performance in previous games contrary to physiological explanations in sports sciences. Tests of market efficiency incorporating these findings do not find a profitable betting strategy for bettors.
Erscheinungsjahr
2021
Zeitschriftentitel
Journal of Sports Economics
Band
22
Ausgabe
3
Seite(n)
231 - 250
ISSN
1527-0025
eISSN
1552-7794
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2946780

Zitieren

Soebbing BP, Wicker P, Weimar D, Orlowski J. How do bookmakers interpret running performance of teams in previous games? Evidence from the Football Bundesliga. Journal of Sports Economics. 2021;22(3):231-250.
Soebbing, B. P., Wicker, P., Weimar, D., & Orlowski, J. (2021). How do bookmakers interpret running performance of teams in previous games? Evidence from the Football Bundesliga. Journal of Sports Economics, 22(3), 231-250. doi:10.1177/1527002520975827
Soebbing, Brian P., Wicker, Pamela, Weimar, Daniel, and Orlowski, Johannes. 2021. “How do bookmakers interpret running performance of teams in previous games? Evidence from the Football Bundesliga”. Journal of Sports Economics 22 (3): 231-250.
Soebbing, B. P., Wicker, P., Weimar, D., and Orlowski, J. (2021). How do bookmakers interpret running performance of teams in previous games? Evidence from the Football Bundesliga. Journal of Sports Economics 22, 231-250.
Soebbing, B.P., et al., 2021. How do bookmakers interpret running performance of teams in previous games? Evidence from the Football Bundesliga. Journal of Sports Economics, 22(3), p 231-250.
B.P. Soebbing, et al., “How do bookmakers interpret running performance of teams in previous games? Evidence from the Football Bundesliga”, Journal of Sports Economics, vol. 22, 2021, pp. 231-250.
Soebbing, B.P., Wicker, P., Weimar, D., Orlowski, J.: How do bookmakers interpret running performance of teams in previous games? Evidence from the Football Bundesliga. Journal of Sports Economics. 22, 231-250 (2021).
Soebbing, Brian P., Wicker, Pamela, Weimar, Daniel, and Orlowski, Johannes. “How do bookmakers interpret running performance of teams in previous games? Evidence from the Football Bundesliga”. Journal of Sports Economics 22.3 (2021): 231-250.
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