Predicted Uncertainty: Volatility Calculus and the Indeterminacy of the Future

Esposito E (2018)
In: Uncertain Futures. Imaginaries, Narratives, and Calculation in the Economy. Beckert J, Bronk R (Eds); Oxford: Oxford University Press: 219-235.

Sammelwerksbeitrag | Veröffentlicht | Englisch
 
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Herausgeber*in
Beckert, Jens; Bronk, Richard
Abstract / Bemerkung
The chapter analyses the way in which structured finance manages and controls the openness of the future as a source of profit. Financial modelling relies on a specific form of fiction, based on the careful construction of a present image of the future and its uncertainty—expressed by the evaluation of implied volatility. The problem with this approach is that it fails to take account of the reflexive way in which the fictitious future it constructs affects the (not-yet-existing) future reality. This chapter highlights the dual nature of the future as intersection and combination of both the present future and the future present. It concludes that structured-financed models—despite their attempt to control risk by making calculations in the present about the future and about current market expectations of the future—may, in times of turbulence, increase the indeterminacy and unpredictability of future reality.
Erscheinungsjahr
2018
Buchtitel
Uncertain Futures. Imaginaries, Narratives, and Calculation in the Economy
Seite(n)
219-235
ISBN
9780198820802
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2943087

Zitieren

Esposito E. Predicted Uncertainty: Volatility Calculus and the Indeterminacy of the Future. In: Beckert J, Bronk R, eds. Uncertain Futures. Imaginaries, Narratives, and Calculation in the Economy. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 2018: 219-235.
Esposito, E. (2018). Predicted Uncertainty: Volatility Calculus and the Indeterminacy of the Future. In J. Beckert & R. Bronk (Eds.), Uncertain Futures. Imaginaries, Narratives, and Calculation in the Economy (pp. 219-235). Oxford: Oxford University Press. doi:10.1093/oso/9780198820802.003.0010
Esposito, E. (2018). “Predicted Uncertainty: Volatility Calculus and the Indeterminacy of the Future” in Uncertain Futures. Imaginaries, Narratives, and Calculation in the Economy, Beckert, J., and Bronk, R. eds. (Oxford: Oxford University Press), 219-235.
Esposito, E., 2018. Predicted Uncertainty: Volatility Calculus and the Indeterminacy of the Future. In J. Beckert & R. Bronk, eds. Uncertain Futures. Imaginaries, Narratives, and Calculation in the Economy. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 219-235.
E. Esposito, “Predicted Uncertainty: Volatility Calculus and the Indeterminacy of the Future”, Uncertain Futures. Imaginaries, Narratives, and Calculation in the Economy, J. Beckert and R. Bronk, eds., Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018, pp.219-235.
Esposito, E.: Predicted Uncertainty: Volatility Calculus and the Indeterminacy of the Future. In: Beckert, J. and Bronk, R. (eds.) Uncertain Futures. Imaginaries, Narratives, and Calculation in the Economy. p. 219-235. Oxford University Press, Oxford (2018).
Esposito, Elena. “Predicted Uncertainty: Volatility Calculus and the Indeterminacy of the Future”. Uncertain Futures. Imaginaries, Narratives, and Calculation in the Economy. Ed. Jens Beckert and Richard Bronk. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018. 219-235.

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