Determinants of expected vs. actual match outcome: an examination of the German Bundesliga

von Hanau T, Wicker P, Soebbing BP (2015)
Soccer & Society 16(1): 63-75.

Zeitschriftenaufsatz | Veröffentlicht | Englisch
 
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Autor*in
von Hanau, Tassilo; Wicker, PamelaUniBi; Soebbing, Brian Philip
Abstract / Bemerkung
Within society, there are many publications regarding expectations of firm performance. These include analysis, industry insiders and ranking service. Within sports, bookmakers provide betting odds that reflect the expected outcome of matches and are determined by several factors. The purpose of this study is to analyse the determinants of expected match outcome (i.e. betting odds) and compare them to those of actual match outcome. Data from the 2010/2011 season of the German Bundesliga (soccer) are made available that are combined with betting odds for each match. Regression results show that several factors, such as difference in standing between team and opponent, difference in competitions played, difference in points earned over the last five matches, differences in standing last season and home advantage significantly influence expected match outcome. On the contrary, actual match outcome is only determined by the latter two factors.
Erscheinungsjahr
2015
Zeitschriftentitel
Soccer & Society
Band
16
Ausgabe
1
Seite(n)
63-75
ISSN
1466-0970
eISSN
1743-9590
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2942599

Zitieren

von Hanau T, Wicker P, Soebbing BP. Determinants of expected vs. actual match outcome: an examination of the German Bundesliga. Soccer & Society . 2015;16(1):63-75.
von Hanau, T., Wicker, P., & Soebbing, B. P. (2015). Determinants of expected vs. actual match outcome: an examination of the German Bundesliga. Soccer & Society , 16(1), 63-75. doi:10.1080/14660970.2014.882823
von Hanau, T., Wicker, P., and Soebbing, B. P. (2015). Determinants of expected vs. actual match outcome: an examination of the German Bundesliga. Soccer & Society 16, 63-75.
von Hanau, T., Wicker, P., & Soebbing, B.P., 2015. Determinants of expected vs. actual match outcome: an examination of the German Bundesliga. Soccer & Society , 16(1), p 63-75.
T. von Hanau, P. Wicker, and B.P. Soebbing, “Determinants of expected vs. actual match outcome: an examination of the German Bundesliga”, Soccer & Society , vol. 16, 2015, pp. 63-75.
von Hanau, T., Wicker, P., Soebbing, B.P.: Determinants of expected vs. actual match outcome: an examination of the German Bundesliga. Soccer & Society . 16, 63-75 (2015).
von Hanau, Tassilo, Wicker, Pamela, and Soebbing, Brian Philip. “Determinants of expected vs. actual match outcome: an examination of the German Bundesliga”. Soccer & Society 16.1 (2015): 63-75.

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