The hot hand in professional darts
Ötting M, Langrock R, Deutscher C, Leos-Barajas V (2020)
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A 183(2): 565-580.
Zeitschriftenaufsatz
| Veröffentlicht | Englisch
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Abstract / Bemerkung
We investigate the hot hand hypothesis in professional darts in a nearly ideal setting with minimal to no interaction between players. Considering almost 1 year of tournament data, corresponding to 167492 dart throws in total, we use state space models to investigate serial dependence in throwing performance. In our models, a latent state process serves as a proxy for a player's underlying form, and we use auto-regressive processes to model how this process evolves over time. Our results regarding the persistence of the latent process indicate a weak hot hand effect, but the evidence is inconclusive.
Stichworte
Hidden Markov model;
Hot hand;
Sports statistics;
State space model;
Time series
Erscheinungsjahr
2020
Zeitschriftentitel
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A
Band
183
Ausgabe
2
Seite(n)
565-580
Urheberrecht / Lizenzen
ISSN
0964-1998
eISSN
1467-985X
Finanzierungs-Informationen
Open-Access-Publikationskosten wurden durch die Universität Bielefeld im Rahmen des DEAL-Vertrags gefördert.
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https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2939171
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Ötting M, Langrock R, Deutscher C, Leos-Barajas V. The hot hand in professional darts. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A. 2020;183(2):565-580.
Ötting, M., Langrock, R., Deutscher, C., & Leos-Barajas, V. (2020). The hot hand in professional darts. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, 183(2), 565-580. doi:10.1111/rssa.12527
Ötting, Marius, Langrock, Roland, Deutscher, Christian, and Leos-Barajas, Vianey. 2020. “The hot hand in professional darts”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A 183 (2): 565-580.
Ötting, M., Langrock, R., Deutscher, C., and Leos-Barajas, V. (2020). The hot hand in professional darts. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A 183, 565-580.
Ötting, M., et al., 2020. The hot hand in professional darts. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, 183(2), p 565-580.
M. Ötting, et al., “The hot hand in professional darts”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, vol. 183, 2020, pp. 565-580.
Ötting, M., Langrock, R., Deutscher, C., Leos-Barajas, V.: The hot hand in professional darts. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A. 183, 565-580 (2020).
Ötting, Marius, Langrock, Roland, Deutscher, Christian, and Leos-Barajas, Vianey. “The hot hand in professional darts”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A 183.2 (2020): 565-580.
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