The hot hand in professional darts

Ötting M, Langrock R, Deutscher C, Leos-Barajas V (2019)
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY.

Zeitschriftenaufsatz | E-Veröff. vor dem Druck| Englisch
 
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Abstract / Bemerkung
We investigate the hot hand hypothesis in professional darts in a nearly ideal setting with minimal to no interaction between players. Considering almost 1 year of tournament data, corresponding to 167492 dart throws in total, we use state space models to investigate serial dependence in throwing performance. In our models, a latent state process serves as a proxy for a player's underlying form, and we use auto-regressive processes to model how this process evolves over time. Our results regarding the persistence of the latent process indicate a weak hot hand effect, but the evidence is inconclusive.
Stichworte
Hidden Markov model; Hot hand; Sports statistics; State space model; Time series
Erscheinungsjahr
2019
Zeitschriftentitel
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY
ISSN
0964-1998
eISSN
1467-985X
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2939171

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Ötting M, Langrock R, Deutscher C, Leos-Barajas V. The hot hand in professional darts. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY. 2019.
Ötting, M., Langrock, R., Deutscher, C., & Leos-Barajas, V. (2019). The hot hand in professional darts. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY. doi:10.1111/rssa.12527
Ötting, M., Langrock, R., Deutscher, C., and Leos-Barajas, V. (2019). The hot hand in professional darts. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY.
Ötting, M., et al., 2019. The hot hand in professional darts. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY.
M. Ötting, et al., “The hot hand in professional darts”, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY, 2019.
Ötting, M., Langrock, R., Deutscher, C., Leos-Barajas, V.: The hot hand in professional darts. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY. (2019).
Ötting, Marius, Langrock, Roland, Deutscher, Christian, and Leos-Barajas, Vianey. “The hot hand in professional darts”. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY (2019).