Climate Models: How to Assess Their Reliability

Carrier M, Lenhard J (2019)
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE 32(2): 81-100.

Zeitschriftenaufsatz | E-Veröff. vor dem Druck | Englisch
 
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Abstract / Bemerkung
The paper discusses modelling uncertainties in climate models and how they can be addressed based on physical principles as well as based on how the models perform in light of empirical data. We argue that the reliability of climate models can be judged by three kinds of standards: striking confirmation, supplementing independent causal arguments, and judging the causal core of models by establishing model robustness. We also use model robustness for delimiting confirmational holism. We survey recent results of climate modelling and identify salient results that fulfil each of the three standards. Our conclusion is that climate models can be considered reliable for some qualitative gross features and some long-term tendencies of the climate system as well as for quantitative aspects of some smaller-scale mechanisms. The adequacy of climate models for other purposes is less convincing. Among the latter are probability estimates, in particular, those concerning rare events. On the whole, climate models suffer from important deficits and are difficult to verify, but are still better confirmed and more reliable than parts of the methodological literature suggest.
Erscheinungsjahr
2019
Zeitschriftentitel
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE
Band
32
Ausgabe
2
Seite(n)
81-100
ISSN
0269-8595
eISSN
1469-9281
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2938393

Zitieren

Carrier M, Lenhard J. Climate Models: How to Assess Their Reliability. INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE. 2019;32(2):81-100.
Carrier, M., & Lenhard, J. (2019). Climate Models: How to Assess Their Reliability. INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE, 32(2), 81-100. doi:10.1080/02698595.2019.1644722
Carrier, M., and Lenhard, J. (2019). Climate Models: How to Assess Their Reliability. INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE 32, 81-100.
Carrier, M., & Lenhard, J., 2019. Climate Models: How to Assess Their Reliability. INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE, 32(2), p 81-100.
M. Carrier and J. Lenhard, “Climate Models: How to Assess Their Reliability”, INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE, vol. 32, 2019, pp. 81-100.
Carrier, M., Lenhard, J.: Climate Models: How to Assess Their Reliability. INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE. 32, 81-100 (2019).
Carrier, Martin, and Lenhard, Johannes. “Climate Models: How to Assess Their Reliability”. INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE 32.2 (2019): 81-100.