Probabilistic transitivity in sports

Tiwisina J, Külpmann P (2019)
COMPUTERS & OPERATIONS RESEARCH 112: UNSP 104765.

Zeitschriftenaufsatz | E-Veröff. vor dem Druck | Englisch
 
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Abstract / Bemerkung
We seek to find the statistical model that most accurately describes empirically observed results in sports. This model has only two assumptions: a trinomial distribution of outcomes and a transitive relationship between these probabilities. The latter is implemented by imposing constraints on the outcome probabilities. To find the most likely correct ranking, we propose a Branch-and-Bound algorithm and a quicker, heuristic method. We apply the model to panel data from soccer, American football and tennis. Due to the transitivity assumption, our model has a natural application in comparing ranking systems. Therefore, we use it to evaluate empirically applied ranking schemes. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Stichworte
OR in sports; Stochastic transitivity; Trinomial distribution; Ranking; Geometric optimization
Erscheinungsjahr
2019
Zeitschriftentitel
COMPUTERS & OPERATIONS RESEARCH
Band
112
Art.-Nr.
UNSP 104765
ISSN
0305-0548
eISSN
1873-765X
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2938374

Zitieren

Tiwisina J, Külpmann P. Probabilistic transitivity in sports. COMPUTERS & OPERATIONS RESEARCH. 2019;112: UNSP 104765.
Tiwisina, J., & Külpmann, P. (2019). Probabilistic transitivity in sports. COMPUTERS & OPERATIONS RESEARCH, 112, UNSP 104765. doi:10.1016/j.cor.2019.104765
Tiwisina, J., and Külpmann, P. (2019). Probabilistic transitivity in sports. COMPUTERS & OPERATIONS RESEARCH 112:UNSP 104765.
Tiwisina, J., & Külpmann, P., 2019. Probabilistic transitivity in sports. COMPUTERS & OPERATIONS RESEARCH, 112: UNSP 104765.
J. Tiwisina and P. Külpmann, “Probabilistic transitivity in sports”, COMPUTERS & OPERATIONS RESEARCH, vol. 112, 2019, : UNSP 104765.
Tiwisina, J., Külpmann, P.: Probabilistic transitivity in sports. COMPUTERS & OPERATIONS RESEARCH. 112, : UNSP 104765 (2019).
Tiwisina, Johannes, and Külpmann, Philipp. “Probabilistic transitivity in sports”. COMPUTERS & OPERATIONS RESEARCH 112 (2019): UNSP 104765.

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