Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Dicker D, Nguyen G, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, et al. (2018)
Lancet 392(10159): 1684-1735.
Zeitschriftenaufsatz
| Veröffentlicht | Englisch
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Dicker, Daniel;
Nguyen, Grant;
Abate, Degu;
Abate, Kalkidan Hassen;
Abay, Solomon M;
Abbafati, Cristiana;
Abbasi, Nooshin;
Abbastabar, Hedayat;
Abd-Allah, Foad;
Abdela, Jemal;
Abdelalim, Ahmed;
Abdel-Rahman, Omar
Alle
Alle
Einrichtung
Abstract / Bemerkung
Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systetns, sample registration systetns, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings Globally, 18.7% (95% uncertainty interval 18.4-19.0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58.8% (58.2-59.3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48.1 years (46.5-49.6) to 70.5 years (70.1-70.8) for men and from 52.9 years (51.7-54.0) to 75.6 years (75.3-75.9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49.1 years (46.5-51.7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87.6 years (86.9-88.1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216.0 deaths (196.3-238.1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38.9 deaths (35.6-42.83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5.4 million (5.2-5.6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult tnales, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, wotnen, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. Copyright C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Erscheinungsjahr
2018
Zeitschriftentitel
Lancet
Band
392
Ausgabe
10159
Seite(n)
1684-1735
Urheberrecht / Lizenzen
ISSN
0140-6736
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2932384
Zitieren
Dicker D, Nguyen G, Abate D, et al. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet. 2018;392(10159):1684-1735.
Dicker, D., Nguyen, G., Abate, D., Abate, K. H., Abay, S. M., Abbafati, C., Abbasi, N., et al. (2018). Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet, 392(10159), 1684-1735. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31891-9
Dicker, Daniel, Nguyen, Grant, Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abay, Solomon M, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, et al. 2018. “Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017”. Lancet 392 (10159): 1684-1735.
Dicker, D., Nguyen, G., Abate, D., Abate, K. H., Abay, S. M., Abbafati, C., Abbasi, N., Abbastabar, H., Abd-Allah, F., Abdela, J., et al. (2018). Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 392, 1684-1735.
Dicker, D., et al., 2018. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet, 392(10159), p 1684-1735.
D. Dicker, et al., “Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017”, Lancet, vol. 392, 2018, pp. 1684-1735.
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Daten bereitgestellt von European Bioinformatics Institute (EBI)
25 Zitationen in Europe PMC
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Dwyer-Lindgren L, Bertozzi-Villa A, Stubbs RW, Morozoff C, Mackenbach JP, van Lenthe FJ, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL., JAMA Intern Med 177(7), 2017
PMID: 28492829
Dwyer-Lindgren L, Bertozzi-Villa A, Stubbs RW, Morozoff C, Mackenbach JP, van Lenthe FJ, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL., JAMA Intern Med 177(7), 2017
PMID: 28492829
Measuring under-five mortality: validation of new low-cost methods.
Rajaratnam JK, Tran LN, Lopez AD, Murray CJ., PLoS Med. 7(4), 2010
PMID: 20405055
Rajaratnam JK, Tran LN, Lopez AD, Murray CJ., PLoS Med. 7(4), 2010
PMID: 20405055
The role of obesity in exceptionally slow US mortality improvement.
Preston SH, Vierboom YC, Stokes A., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 115(5), 2018
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Preston SH, Vierboom YC, Stokes A., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 115(5), 2018
PMID: 29339511
Adult mortality from sibling survival data: a reappraisal of selection biases.
Masquelier B., Demography 50(1), 2013
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Masquelier B., Demography 50(1), 2013
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Estimating census and death registration completeness.
Hill K., Asian Pac Popul Forum 1(3), 1987
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Hill K., Asian Pac Popul Forum 1(3), 1987
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Measuring adult mortality using sibling survival: a new analytical method and new results for 44 countries, 1974-2006.
Obermeyer Z, Rajaratnam JK, Park CH, Gakidou E, Hogan MC, Lopez AD, Murray CJ., PLoS Med. 7(4), 2010
PMID: 20405004
Obermeyer Z, Rajaratnam JK, Park CH, Gakidou E, Hogan MC, Lopez AD, Murray CJ., PLoS Med. 7(4), 2010
PMID: 20405004
Increased educational attainment and its effect on child mortality in 175 countries between 1970 and 2009: a systematic analysis.
Gakidou E, Cowling K, Lozano R, Murray CJ., Lancet 376(9745), 2010
PMID: 20851260
Gakidou E, Cowling K, Lozano R, Murray CJ., Lancet 376(9745), 2010
PMID: 20851260
Death by survey: estimating adult mortality without selection bias from sibling survival data.
Gakidou E, King G., Demography 43(3), 2006
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Gakidou E, King G., Demography 43(3), 2006
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Mortality trends in a new South Africa: hard to make a fresh start.
Kahn K, Garenne ML, Collinson MA, Tollman SM., Scand J Public Health Suppl 69(), 2007
PMID: 17676500
Kahn K, Garenne ML, Collinson MA, Tollman SM., Scand J Public Health Suppl 69(), 2007
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The decline in child mortality: a reappraisal.
Ahmad OB, Lopez AD, Inoue M., Bull. World Health Organ. 78(10), 2000
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Ahmad OB, Lopez AD, Inoue M., Bull. World Health Organ. 78(10), 2000
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Obesity and trends in life expectancy.
Walls HL, Backholer K, Proietto J, McNeil JJ., J Obes 2012(), 2012
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Walls HL, Backholer K, Proietto J, McNeil JJ., J Obes 2012(), 2012
PMID: 22655173
The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package: a software package to estimate and project national HIV epidemics.
Ghys PD, Brown T, Grassly NC, Garnett G, Stanecki KA, Stover J, Walker N., Sex Transm Infect 80 Suppl 1(), 2004
PMID: 15249692
Ghys PD, Brown T, Grassly NC, Garnett G, Stanecki KA, Stover J, Walker N., Sex Transm Infect 80 Suppl 1(), 2004
PMID: 15249692
Trends in future health financing and coverage: future health spending and universal health coverage in 188 countries, 2016-40.
Global Burden of Disease Health Financing Collaborator Network, Dieleman JL, Sadat N, Chang AY, Fullman N, Abbafati C, Acharya P, Adou AK, Ahmad Kiadaliri A, Alam K, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Ammar W, Antonio CAT, Aremu O, Asgedom SW, Atey TM, Avila-Burgos L, Ayer R, Badali H, Banach M, Banstola A, Barac A, Belachew AB, Birungi C, Bragazzi NL, Breitborde NJK, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Car J, Catala-Lopez F, Chapin A, Chen CS, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daryani A, Dharmaratne SD, Dubey M, Edessa D, Eldrenkamp E, Eshrati B, Faro A, Feigl AB, Fenny AP, Fischer F, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Ghimire M, Goli S, Hailu AD, Hamidi S, Harb HL, Hay SI, Hendrie D, Ikilezi G, Javanbakht M, John D, Jonas JB, Kaldjian A, Kasaeian A, Kasahun YC, Khalil IA, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Kim YJ, Kinge JM, Kosen S, Krohn KJ, Kumar GA, Lafranconi A, Lam H, Listl S, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Martinez G, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Micah A, Miller TR, Mirrakhimov EM, Mlashu FW, Mohammed E, Mohammed S, Moses M, Mousavi SM, Naghavi M, Nangia V, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen CT, Nguyen TH, Niriayo Y, Noroozi M, Owolabi MO, Patel T, Pereira DM, Polinder S, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rai RK, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ray SE, Reiner RC, Sajadi HS, Santoro R, Santos JV, Sarker AR, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sepanlou SG, Shaikh MA, Sharif M, She J, Sheikh A, Shrime MG, Sisay M, Soneji S, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Tadesse H, Tao T, Templin T, Tesema AG, Thapa S, Tobe-Gai R, Topor-Madry R, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tran TT, Undurraga EA, Vasankari T, Violante FS, Werdecker A, Wijeratne T, Xu G, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaki MES, Zlavog B, Murray CJL., Lancet 391(10132), 2018
PMID: 29678341
Global Burden of Disease Health Financing Collaborator Network, Dieleman JL, Sadat N, Chang AY, Fullman N, Abbafati C, Acharya P, Adou AK, Ahmad Kiadaliri A, Alam K, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Ammar W, Antonio CAT, Aremu O, Asgedom SW, Atey TM, Avila-Burgos L, Ayer R, Badali H, Banach M, Banstola A, Barac A, Belachew AB, Birungi C, Bragazzi NL, Breitborde NJK, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Car J, Catala-Lopez F, Chapin A, Chen CS, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daryani A, Dharmaratne SD, Dubey M, Edessa D, Eldrenkamp E, Eshrati B, Faro A, Feigl AB, Fenny AP, Fischer F, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Ghimire M, Goli S, Hailu AD, Hamidi S, Harb HL, Hay SI, Hendrie D, Ikilezi G, Javanbakht M, John D, Jonas JB, Kaldjian A, Kasaeian A, Kasahun YC, Khalil IA, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Kim YJ, Kinge JM, Kosen S, Krohn KJ, Kumar GA, Lafranconi A, Lam H, Listl S, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Martinez G, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Micah A, Miller TR, Mirrakhimov EM, Mlashu FW, Mohammed E, Mohammed S, Moses M, Mousavi SM, Naghavi M, Nangia V, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen CT, Nguyen TH, Niriayo Y, Noroozi M, Owolabi MO, Patel T, Pereira DM, Polinder S, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rai RK, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ray SE, Reiner RC, Sajadi HS, Santoro R, Santos JV, Sarker AR, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sepanlou SG, Shaikh MA, Sharif M, She J, Sheikh A, Shrime MG, Sisay M, Soneji S, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Tadesse H, Tao T, Templin T, Tesema AG, Thapa S, Tobe-Gai R, Topor-Madry R, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tran TT, Undurraga EA, Vasankari T, Violante FS, Werdecker A, Wijeratne T, Xu G, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaki MES, Zlavog B, Murray CJL., Lancet 391(10132), 2018
PMID: 29678341
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