Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Stanaway JD, Afshin A, Gakidou E, Lim SS, Abate D, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, et al. (2018)
Lancet 392(10159): 1923-1994.

Zeitschriftenaufsatz | Veröffentlicht | Englisch
 
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Stanaway, Jeffrey D; Afshin, Ashkan; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Lim, Stephen S; Abate, Degu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasi, Nooshin; Abbastabar, Hedayat; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdela, Jemal; Abdelalim, Ahmed
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Abstract / Bemerkung
Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Erscheinungsjahr
2018
Zeitschriftentitel
Lancet
Band
392
Ausgabe
10159
Seite(n)
1923-1994
ISSN
0140-6736
Page URI
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2932358

Zitieren

Stanaway JD, Afshin A, Gakidou E, et al. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet. 2018;392(10159):1923-1994.
Stanaway, J. D., Afshin, A., Gakidou, E., Lim, S. S., Abate, D., Abate, K. H., Abbafati, C., et al. (2018). Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet, 392(10159), 1923-1994. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32225-6
Stanaway, J. D., Afshin, A., Gakidou, E., Lim, S. S., Abate, D., Abate, K. H., Abbafati, C., Abbasi, N., Abbastabar, H., Abd-Allah, F., et al. (2018). Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 392, 1923-1994.
Stanaway, J.D., et al., 2018. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet, 392(10159), p 1923-1994.
J.D. Stanaway, et al., “Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017”, Lancet, vol. 392, 2018, pp. 1923-1994.
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PMID: 29108723
The age-specific quantitative effects of metabolic risk factors on cardiovascular diseases and diabetes: a pooled analysis.
Singh GM, Danaei G, Farzadfar F, Stevens GA, Woodward M, Wormser D, Kaptoge S, Whitlock G, Qiao Q, Lewington S, Di Angelantonio E, Vander Hoorn S, Lawes CM, Ali MK, Mozaffarian D, Ezzati M; Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors of Chronic Diseases Collaborating Group; Asia-Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration (APCSC); Diabetes Epidemiology: Collaborative analysis of Diagnostic criteria in Europe (DECODE); Emerging Risk Factor Collaboration (ERFC); Prospective Studies Collaboration (PSC), Jorgensen T, Borch-Johnson K, Nissinen A, Pekkanen J, Tuomilehto J, Pyorala M, Pyorala K, Tuomilehto J, Lindstrom J, Tuomilehto J, Laatikainen T, Peltonen M, Lindstrom J, Keinanen-Kiukaanniemi S, Rajala U, Laakso M, Tilvis R, Tuomilehto J, Garancini MP, Calori G, Ruotolo G, Mannino S, Villa M, Pajak A, Kawalec E, Nilsson PM, Berglund G, Soderberg S, Eliasson M, Zethelius B, Dekker JM, Nijpels G, Stehouwer CD, Unwin N, Ahmad N, Alberti KG, Hayes L, Morris R, Yudkin J, Gould M, Haines A, Ford CE, Pressel SL, Jungner I, Walldius G, Folsom AR, Couper D, Stevens J, Selvin E, Panagiotakos D, Pitsavos C, Chrysohoou C, Stefanadis C, Atkins R, Barr EL, Shaw JE, Zimmet PZ, Knuiman MW, Whincup PH, Wannamethee SG, Morris RW, Kiechl S, Willeit J, Oberhollenzer F, Mayr A, Wald N, Ebrahim S, Lawlor DA, Yarnell JW, Gallacher J, Casiglia E, Tikhonoff V, Nietert PJ, Sutherland SE, Bachman DL, Keil JE, Mukamal KJ, Kizer JR, de Boer IH, Tybjærg-Hansen A, Nordestgaard BG, Frikke-Schmidt R, Benn M, Giampaoli S, Palmieri L, Panico S, Vanuzzo D, Pilotto L, Gomez de la Camara A, Herrera MA, Simons L, McCallum J, Friedlander Y, Price J, McLachlan S, Lee AJ, Taylor JO, Guralnik JM, Wallace RB, Guralnik JM, Phillips CL, Blazer DG, Guralnik JM, Phillips CL, Guralnik JM, Khaw KT, Wareham NJ, Brenner H, Schottker B, Muller H, Rothenbacher D, Jansson JH, Wennberg P, Nissinen A, Donfrancesco C, Giampaoli S, Salomaa V, Harald K, Jousilahti PR, Vartiainen E, D' Agostino RB Sr, Vasan RS, Fox CS, Pencina MJ, Bladbjerg EM, Jorgensen T, Moller L, Jespersen J, Dankner R, Chetrit A, Lubin F, Wilhelmsen L, Eriksson H, Welin L, Rosengren A, Wilhelmsen L, Lappas G, Eriksson H, Bjorkelund C, Lissner L, Bengtsson C, Cremer P, Nagel D, Strandberg TE, Salomaa V, Tilvis RS, Miettinen TA, Pai JK, Strandberg TE, Doi Y, Ninomiya T, Rodriguez B, Dekker JM, Nijpels G, Iso H, Kitamura A, Yamagishi K, Noda H, Kauhanen J, Salonen JT, Deeg D, Meade TW, Cooper JA, Hedblad B, Berglund G, Engstro G, Folsom AR, Psaty BM, Shea SJ, Cushman M, Do A, Koenig W, Meisinger C, Bueno-de-Mesquita HB, Lappas G, Fletcher A, Kuller LH, Grandits G, Selmer R, Tverdal A, Nystad W, Gillum RF, Mussolino M, Rimm EB, Pai JK, Salomaa V, Harald K, Jousilahti PR, Vartiainen E, Meade TW, Cooper JA, Bauer KA, Davidson KW, Kirkland S, Shaffer JA, Korin MR, Kitamura A, Iso H, Sato S, Holme I, Tverdal A, Nystad W, Nakagawa H, Miura K, Ducimetiere P, Jouven X, Hillege HL, Crespo CJ, Garcia-Palmieri MR, Amouyel P, Arveiler D, Evans A, Ferrie J, Sattar N, Cantin B, Lamarche B, Barrett-Connor E, Wingard DL, Bettencourt R, Gudnason V, Aspelund T, Sigurdsson G, Thorsson B, Witteman JC, Ikram MA, Franco OH, Hofman A, Tunstall-Pedoe H, Tavendale R, Woodward M, Zhang Y, Best LG, Umans J, Ben-Shlomo Y, Davey-Smith G, Onat A, Nakagawa H, Sakurai M, Nakamura K, Morikawa Y, Meade TW, Njolstad I, Mathiesen EB, Lochen ML, Wilsgaard T, Gaziano JM, Stampfer M, Ridker PM, Ulmer H, Nagel G, Concin H, Tosetto A, Rodeghiero F, Wassertheil-Smoller S, Manson JE, Howard BV, Marmot M, Clarke R, Collins R, Fletcher A, Brunner EJ, Shipley M, Ridker PM, Buring J, Shepherd J, Cobbe SM, Ford I, Jukema JW, Marin Ibanez A, Feskens EJ, Kromhout D, Alexander M, Butterworth A, Collins R, Di Angelantonio E, Gao P, Kaptoge S, Lewington S, Pennells L, Thompson SG, Walker M, Watson S, White IR, Wood AM, Wormser D, Danesh J, Arnlov J, Sundstrom J, Ingelsson E., PLoS ONE 8(7), 2013
PMID: 23935815
Global trends and projections for tobacco use, 1990-2025: an analysis of smoking indicators from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control.
Bilano V, Gilmour S, Moffiet T, d'Espaignet ET, Stevens GA, Commar A, Tuyl F, Hudson I, Shibuya K., Lancet 385(9972), 2015
PMID: 25784347
Excess deaths due to occupation.
Steenland K., Occup Environ Med 73(8), 2016
PMID: 27317432
Saving an additional 100 million lives.
Frieden TR, Bloomberg MR., Lancet 391(10121), 2017
PMID: 28916368
Fixed Low-Dose Triple Combination Antihypertensive Medication vs Usual Care for Blood Pressure Control in Patients With Mild to Moderate Hypertension in Sri Lanka: A Randomized Clinical Trial.
Webster R, Salam A, de Silva HA, Selak V, Stepien S, Rajapakse S, Amarasekara S, Amarasena N, Billot L, de Silva AP, Fernando M, Guggilla R, Jan S, Jayawardena J, Maulik PK, Mendis S, Mendis S, Munasinghe J, Naik N, Prabhakaran D, Ranasinghe G, Thom S, Tisserra N, Senaratne V, Wijekoon S, Wijeyasingam S, Rodgers A, Patel A; TRIUMPH Study Group., JAMA 320(6), 2018
PMID: 30120478
Blood pressure and incidence of twelve cardiovascular diseases: lifetime risks, healthy life-years lost, and age-specific associations in 1·25 million people.
Rapsomaniki E, Timmis A, George J, Pujades-Rodriguez M, Shah AD, Denaxas S, White IR, Caulfield MJ, Deanfield JE, Smeeth L, Williams B, Hingorani A, Hemingway H., Lancet 383(9932), 2014
PMID: 24881994
Consequences of bullying victimization in childhood and adolescence: A systematic review and meta-analysis.
Moore SE, Norman RE, Suetani S, Thomas HJ, Sly PD, Scott JG., World J Psychiatry 7(1), 2017
PMID: 28401049
Breastfeeding in the 21st century: epidemiology, mechanisms, and lifelong effect.
Victora CG, Bahl R, Barros AJ, Franca GV, Horton S, Krasevec J, Murch S, Sankar MJ, Walker N, Rollins NC; Lancet Breastfeeding Series Group, Allen K, Dharmage S, Lodge C, Peres KG, Bhandari N, Chowdhury R, Sinha B, Taneja S, Giugliani E, Horta B, Maia F, de Mola CL, Hajeebhoy N, Lutter C, Piwoz E, Martines JC, Richter L., Lancet 387(10017), 2016
PMID: 26869575
A Cluster-Randomized, Controlled Trial of a Simplified Multifaceted Management Program for Individuals at High Cardiovascular Risk (SimCard Trial) in Rural Tibet, China, and Haryana, India.
Tian M, Ajay VS, Dunzhu D, Hameed SS, Li X, Liu Z, Li C, Chen H, Cho K, Li R, Zhao X, Jindal D, Rawal I, Ali MK, Peterson ED, Ji J, Amarchand R, Krishnan A, Tandon N, Xu LQ, Wu Y, Prabhakaran D, Yan LL., Circulation 132(9), 2015
PMID: 26187183
Occupational cancer burden in Great Britain.
Rushton L, Hutchings SJ, Fortunato L, Young C, Evans GS, Brown T, Bevan R, Slack R, Holmes P, Bagga S, Cherrie JW, Van Tongeren M., Br. J. Cancer 107 Suppl 1(), 2012
PMID: 22710676
Global Prevalence of Chronic Kidney Disease - A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
Hill NR, Fatoba ST, Oke JL, Hirst JA, O'Callaghan CA, Lasserson DS, Hobbs FD., PLoS ONE 11(7), 2016
PMID: 27383068
National, regional, and worldwide estimates of preterm birth rates in the year 2010 with time trends since 1990 for selected countries: a systematic analysis and implications.
Blencowe H, Cousens S, Oestergaard MZ, Chou D, Moller AB, Narwal R, Adler A, Vera Garcia C, Rohde S, Say L, Lawn JE., Lancet 379(9832), 2012
PMID: 22682464
Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study.
Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Hashizume M, Lavigne E, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Tobias A, Tong S, Rocklov J, Forsberg B, Leone M, De Sario M, Bell ML, Guo YL, Wu CF, Kan H, Yi SM, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Saldiva PH, Honda Y, Kim H, Armstrong B., Lancet 386(9991), 2015
PMID: 26003380
Dietary linoleic acid and risk of coronary heart disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.
Farvid MS, Ding M, Pan A, Sun Q, Chiuve SE, Steffen LM, Willett WC, Hu FB., Circulation 130(18), 2014
PMID: 25161045
The burden and costs of chronic diseases in low-income and middle-income countries.
Abegunde DO, Mathers CD, Adam T, Ortegon M, Strong K., Lancet 370(9603), 2007
PMID: 18063029
Tobacco taxes as a tobacco control strategy.
Chaloupka FJ, Yurekli A, Fong GT., Tob Control 21(2), 2012
PMID: 22345242
Bullying in children and adolescents: a modifiable risk factor for mental illness.
Scott JG, Moore SE, Sly PD, Norman RE., Aust N Z J Psychiatry 48(3), 2013
PMID: 24317152
Estimating the global burden of disease of mild mental retardation and cardiovascular diseases from environmental lead exposure.
Fewtrell LJ, Pruss-Ustun A, Landrigan P, Ayuso-Mateos JL., Environ. Res. 94(2), 2004
PMID: 14757375
Air pollution and type 2 diabetes: mechanistic insights.
Rajagopalan S, Brook RD., Diabetes 61(12), 2012
PMID: 23172950
Cost-effectiveness of interventions to control cardiovascular diseases and diabetes mellitus in South Asia: a systematic review.
Singh K, Chandrasekaran AM, Bhaumik S, Chattopadhyay K, Gamage AU, Silva P, Roy A, Prabhakaran D, Tandon N., BMJ Open 8(4), 2018
PMID: 29615442
Bullying in schools: the state of knowledge and effective interventions.
Menesini E, Salmivalli C., Psychol Health Med 22(sup1), 2017
PMID: 28114811
Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting: the GATHER statement.
Stevens GA, Alkema L, Black RE, Boerma JT, Collins GS, Ezzati M, Grove JT, Hogan DR, Hogan MC, Horton R, Lawn JE, Marusic A, Mathers CD, Murray CJ, Rudan I, Salomon JA, Simpson PJ, Vos T, Welch V; (The GATHER Working Group)., Lancet 388(10062), 2016
PMID: 27371184
The Proportion of Anemia Associated with Iron Deficiency in Low, Medium, and High Human Development Index Countries: A Systematic Analysis of National Surveys.
Petry N, Olofin I, Hurrell RF, Boy E, Wirth JP, Moursi M, Donahue Angel M, Rohner F., Nutrients 8(11), 2016
PMID: 27827838
Global estimates of the burden of injury and illness at work in 2012.
Takala J, Hamalainen P, Saarela KL, Yun LY, Manickam K, Jin TW, Heng P, Tjong C, Kheng LG, Lim S, Lin GS., J Occup Environ Hyg 11(5), 2014
PMID: 24219404
Cardiovascular, respiratory, and related disorders: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition.
Prabhakaran D, Anand S, Watkins D, Gaziano T, Wu Y, Mbanya JC, Nugent R; Disease Control Priorities-3 Cardiovascular, Respiratory, and Related Disorders Author Group, Ajay VS, Afshin A, Adler A, Ali MK, Bateman E, Bettger J, Bonow RO, Brouwer E, Bukhman G, Bull F, Burney P, Capewell S, Chan J, Chandrasekar EK, Chen J, Criqui MH, Dirks J, Dugani SB, Engelgau M, El Nahas M, Fall CH, Feigin V, Fowkes FGR, Glassman A, Goenka S, Gupta R, Hasan B, Hersch F, Hu F, Huffman MD, Jabbour S, Jarvis D, Jeemon P, Joshi R, Kamano JH, Kengne AP, Kudesia P, Kumar RK, Kumaran K, Lambert EV, Lee ES, Li C, Luo R, Magee M, Malik VS, Marin-Neto JA, Marks G, Mayosi B, McGuire H, Micha R, Miranda JJ, Montoya PA, Moran AE, Mozaffarian D, Naicker S, Naidoo NG, Narayan KV, Nikolic I, O'Donnell M, Onen C, Osmond C, Patel A, Perez-Padilla R, Poulter N, Pratt M, Rabkin M, Rajan V, Rassi A, Rassi A Jr, Rawal I, Remuzzi G, Riella M, Roth GA, Roy A, Rubinstein A, Sakuma Y, Sampson UK, Siegel KR, Sliwa K, Suhrcke M, Tandon N, Thomas B, Vaca C, Vedanthan R, Verguet S, Webb M, Weber MB, Whitsel L, Wong G, Yan LL, Yancy CW, Zhang P, Zhao D, Zhu Y., Lancet 391(10126), 2017
PMID: 29108723
The age-specific quantitative effects of metabolic risk factors on cardiovascular diseases and diabetes: a pooled analysis.
Singh GM, Danaei G, Farzadfar F, Stevens GA, Woodward M, Wormser D, Kaptoge S, Whitlock G, Qiao Q, Lewington S, Di Angelantonio E, Vander Hoorn S, Lawes CM, Ali MK, Mozaffarian D, Ezzati M; Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors of Chronic Diseases Collaborating Group; Asia-Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration (APCSC); Diabetes Epidemiology: Collaborative analysis of Diagnostic criteria in Europe (DECODE); Emerging Risk Factor Collaboration (ERFC); Prospective Studies Collaboration (PSC), Jorgensen T, Borch-Johnson K, Nissinen A, Pekkanen J, Tuomilehto J, Pyorala M, Pyorala K, Tuomilehto J, Lindstrom J, Tuomilehto J, Laatikainen T, Peltonen M, Lindstrom J, Keinanen-Kiukaanniemi S, Rajala U, Laakso M, Tilvis R, Tuomilehto J, Garancini MP, Calori G, Ruotolo G, Mannino S, Villa M, Pajak A, Kawalec E, Nilsson PM, Berglund G, Soderberg S, Eliasson M, Zethelius B, Dekker JM, Nijpels G, Stehouwer CD, Unwin N, Ahmad N, Alberti KG, Hayes L, Morris R, Yudkin J, Gould M, Haines A, Ford CE, Pressel SL, Jungner I, Walldius G, Folsom AR, Couper D, Stevens J, Selvin E, Panagiotakos D, Pitsavos C, Chrysohoou C, Stefanadis C, Atkins R, Barr EL, Shaw JE, Zimmet PZ, Knuiman MW, Whincup PH, Wannamethee SG, Morris RW, Kiechl S, Willeit J, Oberhollenzer F, Mayr A, Wald N, Ebrahim S, Lawlor DA, Yarnell JW, Gallacher J, Casiglia E, Tikhonoff V, Nietert PJ, Sutherland SE, Bachman DL, Keil JE, Mukamal KJ, Kizer JR, de Boer IH, Tybjærg-Hansen A, Nordestgaard BG, Frikke-Schmidt R, Benn M, Giampaoli S, Palmieri L, Panico S, Vanuzzo D, Pilotto L, Gomez de la Camara A, Herrera MA, Simons L, McCallum J, Friedlander Y, Price J, McLachlan S, Lee AJ, Taylor JO, Guralnik JM, Wallace RB, Guralnik JM, Phillips CL, Blazer DG, Guralnik JM, Phillips CL, Guralnik JM, Khaw KT, Wareham NJ, Brenner H, Schottker B, Muller H, Rothenbacher D, Jansson JH, Wennberg P, Nissinen A, Donfrancesco C, Giampaoli S, Salomaa V, Harald K, Jousilahti PR, Vartiainen E, D' Agostino RB Sr, Vasan RS, Fox CS, Pencina MJ, Bladbjerg EM, Jorgensen T, Moller L, Jespersen J, Dankner R, Chetrit A, Lubin F, Wilhelmsen L, Eriksson H, Welin L, Rosengren A, Wilhelmsen L, Lappas G, Eriksson H, Bjorkelund C, Lissner L, Bengtsson C, Cremer P, Nagel D, Strandberg TE, Salomaa V, Tilvis RS, Miettinen TA, Pai JK, Strandberg TE, Doi Y, Ninomiya T, Rodriguez B, Dekker JM, Nijpels G, Iso H, Kitamura A, Yamagishi K, Noda H, Kauhanen J, Salonen JT, Deeg D, Meade TW, Cooper JA, Hedblad B, Berglund G, Engstro G, Folsom AR, Psaty BM, Shea SJ, Cushman M, Do A, Koenig W, Meisinger C, Bueno-de-Mesquita HB, Lappas G, Fletcher A, Kuller LH, Grandits G, Selmer R, Tverdal A, Nystad W, Gillum RF, Mussolino M, Rimm EB, Pai JK, Salomaa V, Harald K, Jousilahti PR, Vartiainen E, Meade TW, Cooper JA, Bauer KA, Davidson KW, Kirkland S, Shaffer JA, Korin MR, Kitamura A, Iso H, Sato S, Holme I, Tverdal A, Nystad W, Nakagawa H, Miura K, Ducimetiere P, Jouven X, Hillege HL, Crespo CJ, Garcia-Palmieri MR, Amouyel P, Arveiler D, Evans A, Ferrie J, Sattar N, Cantin B, Lamarche B, Barrett-Connor E, Wingard DL, Bettencourt R, Gudnason V, Aspelund T, Sigurdsson G, Thorsson B, Witteman JC, Ikram MA, Franco OH, Hofman A, Tunstall-Pedoe H, Tavendale R, Woodward M, Zhang Y, Best LG, Umans J, Ben-Shlomo Y, Davey-Smith G, Onat A, Nakagawa H, Sakurai M, Nakamura K, Morikawa Y, Meade TW, Njolstad I, Mathiesen EB, Lochen ML, Wilsgaard T, Gaziano JM, Stampfer M, Ridker PM, Ulmer H, Nagel G, Concin H, Tosetto A, Rodeghiero F, Wassertheil-Smoller S, Manson JE, Howard BV, Marmot M, Clarke R, Collins R, Fletcher A, Brunner EJ, Shipley M, Ridker PM, Buring J, Shepherd J, Cobbe SM, Ford I, Jukema JW, Marin Ibanez A, Feskens EJ, Kromhout D, Alexander M, Butterworth A, Collins R, Di Angelantonio E, Gao P, Kaptoge S, Lewington S, Pennells L, Thompson SG, Walker M, Watson S, White IR, Wood AM, Wormser D, Danesh J, Arnlov J, Sundstrom J, Ingelsson E., PLoS ONE 8(7), 2013
PMID: 23935815
Global trends and projections for tobacco use, 1990-2025: an analysis of smoking indicators from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control.
Bilano V, Gilmour S, Moffiet T, d'Espaignet ET, Stevens GA, Commar A, Tuyl F, Hudson I, Shibuya K., Lancet 385(9972), 2015
PMID: 25784347
Excess deaths due to occupation.
Steenland K., Occup Environ Med 73(8), 2016
PMID: 27317432
Saving an additional 100 million lives.
Frieden TR, Bloomberg MR., Lancet 391(10121), 2017
PMID: 28916368
Fixed Low-Dose Triple Combination Antihypertensive Medication vs Usual Care for Blood Pressure Control in Patients With Mild to Moderate Hypertension in Sri Lanka: A Randomized Clinical Trial.
Webster R, Salam A, de Silva HA, Selak V, Stepien S, Rajapakse S, Amarasekara S, Amarasena N, Billot L, de Silva AP, Fernando M, Guggilla R, Jan S, Jayawardena J, Maulik PK, Mendis S, Mendis S, Munasinghe J, Naik N, Prabhakaran D, Ranasinghe G, Thom S, Tisserra N, Senaratne V, Wijekoon S, Wijeyasingam S, Rodgers A, Patel A; TRIUMPH Study Group., JAMA 320(6), 2018
PMID: 30120478
Blood pressure and incidence of twelve cardiovascular diseases: lifetime risks, healthy life-years lost, and age-specific associations in 1·25 million people.
Rapsomaniki E, Timmis A, George J, Pujades-Rodriguez M, Shah AD, Denaxas S, White IR, Caulfield MJ, Deanfield JE, Smeeth L, Williams B, Hingorani A, Hemingway H., Lancet 383(9932), 2014
PMID: 24881994
Consequences of bullying victimization in childhood and adolescence: A systematic review and meta-analysis.
Moore SE, Norman RE, Suetani S, Thomas HJ, Sly PD, Scott JG., World J Psychiatry 7(1), 2017
PMID: 28401049
Breastfeeding in the 21st century: epidemiology, mechanisms, and lifelong effect.
Victora CG, Bahl R, Barros AJ, Franca GV, Horton S, Krasevec J, Murch S, Sankar MJ, Walker N, Rollins NC; Lancet Breastfeeding Series Group, Allen K, Dharmage S, Lodge C, Peres KG, Bhandari N, Chowdhury R, Sinha B, Taneja S, Giugliani E, Horta B, Maia F, de Mola CL, Hajeebhoy N, Lutter C, Piwoz E, Martines JC, Richter L., Lancet 387(10017), 2016
PMID: 26869575
A Cluster-Randomized, Controlled Trial of a Simplified Multifaceted Management Program for Individuals at High Cardiovascular Risk (SimCard Trial) in Rural Tibet, China, and Haryana, India.
Tian M, Ajay VS, Dunzhu D, Hameed SS, Li X, Liu Z, Li C, Chen H, Cho K, Li R, Zhao X, Jindal D, Rawal I, Ali MK, Peterson ED, Ji J, Amarchand R, Krishnan A, Tandon N, Xu LQ, Wu Y, Prabhakaran D, Yan LL., Circulation 132(9), 2015
PMID: 26187183
Occupational cancer burden in Great Britain.
Rushton L, Hutchings SJ, Fortunato L, Young C, Evans GS, Brown T, Bevan R, Slack R, Holmes P, Bagga S, Cherrie JW, Van Tongeren M., Br. J. Cancer 107 Suppl 1(), 2012
PMID: 22710676
Global Prevalence of Chronic Kidney Disease - A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
Hill NR, Fatoba ST, Oke JL, Hirst JA, O'Callaghan CA, Lasserson DS, Hobbs FD., PLoS ONE 11(7), 2016
PMID: 27383068
National, regional, and worldwide estimates of preterm birth rates in the year 2010 with time trends since 1990 for selected countries: a systematic analysis and implications.
Blencowe H, Cousens S, Oestergaard MZ, Chou D, Moller AB, Narwal R, Adler A, Vera Garcia C, Rohde S, Say L, Lawn JE., Lancet 379(9832), 2012
PMID: 22682464
Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study.
Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Hashizume M, Lavigne E, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Tobias A, Tong S, Rocklov J, Forsberg B, Leone M, De Sario M, Bell ML, Guo YL, Wu CF, Kan H, Yi SM, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Saldiva PH, Honda Y, Kim H, Armstrong B., Lancet 386(9991), 2015
PMID: 26003380
Dietary linoleic acid and risk of coronary heart disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.
Farvid MS, Ding M, Pan A, Sun Q, Chiuve SE, Steffen LM, Willett WC, Hu FB., Circulation 130(18), 2014
PMID: 25161045
The burden and costs of chronic diseases in low-income and middle-income countries.
Abegunde DO, Mathers CD, Adam T, Ortegon M, Strong K., Lancet 370(9603), 2007
PMID: 18063029
Tobacco taxes as a tobacco control strategy.
Chaloupka FJ, Yurekli A, Fong GT., Tob Control 21(2), 2012
PMID: 22345242

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