Does the miracle argument embody a base rate fallacy?

Menke C (2014)
Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 45: 103-108.

Download
Es wurde kein Volltext hochgeladen. Nur Publikationsnachweis!
Zeitschriftenaufsatz | Veröffentlicht | Englisch
Abstract / Bemerkung
One way to reconstruct the miracle argument for scientific realism is to regard it as a statistical inference: since it is exceedingly unlikely that a false theory makes successful predictions, while it is rather likely that an approximately true theory is predictively successful, it is reasonable to infer that a predictively successful theory is at least approximately true. This reconstruction has led to the objection that the argument embodies a base rate fallacy: by focusing on successful theories one ignores the vast number of false theories some of which will be successful by mere chance. In this paper, I shall argue that the cogency of this objection depends on the explanandum of the miracle argument. It is cogent if what is to be explained is the success of a particular theory. If, however, the explanandum of the argument is the distribution of successful predictions among competing theories, the situation is different. Since the distribution of accidentally successful predictions is independent of the base rate, it is possible to assess the base rate by comparing this distribution to the empirically found distribution of successful predictions among competing theories. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Erscheinungsjahr
Zeitschriftentitel
Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A
Band
45
Seite
103-108
ISSN
PUB-ID

Zitieren

Menke C. Does the miracle argument embody a base rate fallacy? Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2014;45:103-108.
Menke, C. (2014). Does the miracle argument embody a base rate fallacy? Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A, 45, 103-108. doi:10.1016/j.shpsa.2013.10.006
Menke, C. (2014). Does the miracle argument embody a base rate fallacy? Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 45, 103-108.
Menke, C., 2014. Does the miracle argument embody a base rate fallacy? Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A, 45, p 103-108.
C. Menke, “Does the miracle argument embody a base rate fallacy?”, Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A, vol. 45, 2014, pp. 103-108.
Menke, C.: Does the miracle argument embody a base rate fallacy? Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 45, 103-108 (2014).
Menke, Cornelis. “Does the miracle argument embody a base rate fallacy?”. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 45 (2014): 103-108.

Export

Markieren/ Markierung löschen
Markierte Publikationen

Open Data PUB

Web of Science

Dieser Datensatz im Web of Science®

Quellen

PMID: 24984456
PubMed | Europe PMC

Suchen in

Google Scholar