Estimating the long-term effects of HPV vaccination in Germany

Horn J, Damm O, Kretzschmar MEE, Delere Y, Wichmann O, Kaufmann AM, Garbe E, Krämer A, Greiner W, Mikolajczyk RT (2013)
Vaccine 31(19): 2372-2380.

No fulltext has been uploaded. References only!
Journal Article | Original Article | Published | English

No fulltext has been uploaded

; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
In Germany, vaccination against the most oncogenic HPV types 16/18 is recommended by the Standing Committee on Vaccination (STIKO) for 12-17 year old girls since March 2007. We developed a dynamic mathematical model for the natural history and transmission of HPV infections to estimate the impact of vaccination on incidence and mortality of cervical cancer and its pre-stages, and on anogenital warts. We focused on an extensive model calibration to epidemiologic data for all stages of the natural history model as well as on a detailed implementation of cervical cancer screening modalities in Germany. Our model predicts first a substantial reduction of cervical cancer incidence and mortality over the next 30 years, which is mainly attributable to an increase in screening participation in the 1990s and not to HPV vaccination, followed by a further reduction attributable to vaccination. Over the next 100 years, HPV vaccination will prevent approximately 37% of cervical cancer cases even if vaccination coverage is only 50% (as currently observed in Germany). Consideration of cross-protection results in a further reduction of approximately 7% of all cervical cancer cases for the bivalent and about 5% for the quadrivalent vaccine in our model. Vaccination of boys was only reasonable if moderate to high vaccination coverage in girls was not achieved. Strategies should be implemented in Germany to increase HPV vaccination coverage among girls thereby making better use of the demonstrated benefits of the vaccine. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Publishing Year

Cite this

Horn J, Damm O, Kretzschmar MEE, et al. Estimating the long-term effects of HPV vaccination in Germany. Vaccine. 2013;31(19):2372-2380.
Horn, J., Damm, O., Kretzschmar, M. E. E., Delere, Y., Wichmann, O., Kaufmann, A. M., Garbe, E., et al. (2013). Estimating the long-term effects of HPV vaccination in Germany. Vaccine, 31(19), 2372-2380. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.03.006
Horn, J., Damm, O., Kretzschmar, M. E. E., Delere, Y., Wichmann, O., Kaufmann, A. M., Garbe, E., Krämer, A., Greiner, W., and Mikolajczyk, R. T. (2013). Estimating the long-term effects of HPV vaccination in Germany. Vaccine 31, 2372-2380.
Horn, J., et al., 2013. Estimating the long-term effects of HPV vaccination in Germany. Vaccine, 31(19), p 2372-2380.
J. Horn, et al., “Estimating the long-term effects of HPV vaccination in Germany”, Vaccine, vol. 31, 2013, pp. 2372-2380.
Horn, J., Damm, O., Kretzschmar, M.E.E., Delere, Y., Wichmann, O., Kaufmann, A.M., Garbe, E., Krämer, A., Greiner, W., Mikolajczyk, R.T.: Estimating the long-term effects of HPV vaccination in Germany. Vaccine. 31, 2372-2380 (2013).
Horn, J., Damm, Oliver, Kretzschmar, M. E. E., Delere, Y., Wichmann, O., Kaufmann, A. M., Garbe, E., Krämer, Alexander, Greiner, Wolfgang, and Mikolajczyk, R. T. “Estimating the long-term effects of HPV vaccination in Germany”. Vaccine 31.19 (2013): 2372-2380.
This data publication is cited in the following publications:
This publication cites the following data publications:

12 Citations in Europe PMC

Data provided by Europe PubMed Central.

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination in Germany.
Damm O, Horn J, Mikolajczyk RT, Kretzschmar MEE, Kaufmann AM, Delere Y, Ultsch B, Wichmann O, Kramer A, Greiner W., Cost Eff Resour Alloc 15(), 2017
PMID: 28878573
Sexual Behavior in Germany.
Haversath J, Garttner KM, Kliem S, Vasterling I, Strauss B, Kroger C., Dtsch Arztebl Int 114(33-34), 2017
PMID: 28855044
Clinical relevance and implications of HPV-induced neoplasia in different anatomical locations.
Prigge ES, von Knebel Doeberitz M, Reuschenbach M., Mutat Res Rev Mutat Res 772(), 2017
PMID: 28528690
Gene promoter methylation and protein expression of BRMS1 in uterine cervix in relation to high-risk human papilloma virus infection and cancer.
Panagopoulou M, Lambropoulou M, Balgkouranidou I, Nena E, Karaglani M, Nicolaidou C, Asimaki A, Konstantinidis T, Constantinidis TC, Kolios G, Kakolyris S, Agorastos T, Chatzaki E., Tumour Biol. 39(4), 2017
PMID: 28381193
An estimate of the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of universal vaccination with a 9-valent HPV vaccine in Germany.
Largeron N, Petry KU, Jacob J, Bianic F, Anger D, Uhart M., Expert Rev Pharmacoecon Outcomes Res 17(1), 2017
PMID: 27366939
Factors influencing uptake of HPV vaccination among girls in Germany.
Schulein S, Taylor KJ, Konig J, Claus M, Blettner M, Klug SJ., BMC Public Health 16(), 2016
PMID: 27645711
Cervical cancer control in Latin America: A call to action.
Bychkovsky BL, Ferreyra ME, Strasser-Weippl K, Herold CI, de Lima Lopes G Jr, Dizon DS, Schmeler KM, Del Carmen M, Randall TC, Nogueira-Rodrigues A, de Carvalho Calabrich AF, St Louis J, Vail CM, Goss PE., Cancer 122(4), 2016
PMID: 26670695
[HPV-induced anal lesions].
Wieland U, Kreuter A., Hautarzt 66(6), 2015
PMID: 25859930
Cost-effectiveness and equity impacts of three HPV vaccination programmes for school-aged girls in New Zealand.
Blakely T, Kvizhinadze G, Karvonen T, Pearson AL, Smith M, Wilson N., Vaccine 32(22), 2014
PMID: 24662710
HPV vaccine uptake after introduction of the vaccine in Germany: an analysis of administrative data.
Hense S, Hillebrand K, Horn J, Mikolajczyk R, Schulze-Rath R, Garbe E., Hum Vaccin Immunother 10(6), 2014
PMID: 24637921
Human papillomaviruses in urological malignancies: a critical assessment.
Tolstov Y, Hadaschik B, Pahernik S, Hohenfellner M, Duensing S., Urol. Oncol. 32(1), 2014
PMID: 24140249

61 References

Data provided by Europe PubMed Central.

Worldwide distribution of human papillomavirus types in cytologically normal women in the International Agency for Research on Cancer HPV prevalence surveys: a pooled analysis.
Clifford GM, Gallus S, Herrero R, Munoz N, Snijders PJ, Vaccarella S, Anh PT, Ferreccio C, Hieu NT, Matos E, Molano M, Rajkumar R, Ronco G, de Sanjose S, Shin HR, Sukvirach S, Thomas JO, Tunsakul S, Meijer CJ, Franceschi S; IARC HPV Prevalence Surveys Study Group., Lancet 366(9490), 2005
PMID: 16168781
Population-level impact of the bivalent, quadrivalent, and nonavalent human papillomavirus vaccines: a model-based analysis.
Van de Velde N, Boily MC, Drolet M, Franco EL, Mayrand MH, Kliewer EV, Coutlee F, Laprise JF, Malagon T, Brisson M., J. Natl. Cancer Inst. 104(22), 2012
PMID: 23104323
Cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening with human papillomavirus DNA testing and HPV-16,18 vaccination.
Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Stout NK, Salomon JA, Kuntz KM, Goldie SJ., J. Natl. Cancer Inst. 100(5), 2008
PMID: 18314477
How to screen for cervical cancer after HPV16/18 vaccination in The Netherlands.
Coupe VM, de Melker HE, Snijders PJ, Meijer CJ, Berkhof J., Vaccine 27(37), 2009
PMID: 19567242
Sexual initiation of youths in selected European countries compared with their sexual and contraceptive knowledge.
Krauss H, Bogdanski P, Szulinska M, Malewski M, Buraczynska-Andrzejewska B, Sosnowski P, Piatek J, Demont C, Kaczmarek C, Kaczmarek E, Szpakow A, Kleszczewska E, Maciorkowska E, Klimberg AJ, Mikrut K., Ann Agric Environ Med 19(3), 2012
PMID: 23020062
The cost-effectiveness of male HPV vaccination in the United States.
Chesson HW, Ekwueme DU, Saraiya M, Dunne EF, Markowitz LE., Vaccine 29(46), 2011
PMID: 21816193
Sex-specific immunization for sexually transmitted infections such as human papillomavirus: insights from mathematical models.
Bogaards JA, Kretzschmar M, Xiridou M, Meijer CJ, Berkhof J, Wallinga J., PLoS Med. 8(12), 2011
PMID: 22205887
Incremental impact of adding boys to current human papillomavirus vaccination programs: role of herd immunity.
Brisson M, van de Velde N, Franco EL, Drolet M, Boily MC., J. Infect. Dis. 204(3), 2011
PMID: 21742835


0 Marked Publications

Open Data PUB

Web of Science

View record in Web of Science®


PMID: 23518405
PubMed | Europe PMC

Search this title in

Google Scholar