Expectational Leads in Economic Dynamical Systems

Böhm V, Wenzelburger J (2004)
In: Economic complexity: Non-linear dynamics, multi-agents economies, and learning. Barnett WA, Deissenberger C, Feichtinger G (Eds); Economic Complexity. International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, 14. Amsterdam: Elsevier: 333-362.

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Barnett, William A. ; Deissenberger, Christophe ; Feichtinger, Gustav
Abstract
This chapter extends previous research on forecasting for deterministic economic laws to those with expectational leads. These occur naturally when intertemporal decisions require forecasts for more than one period beyond the actual state of the economy. The concept of perfect forecasting rules, which generate perfect-foresight orbits, is generalized. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for which global as well as local perfect foresight is possible. It is shown when perfect forecasting rules exist for the multivariate linear model and for models of the Coweb type. For two standard OLG models, one with life cycles of arbitrary finite length, it is shown that the existence of perfect forecasting rules depends essentially on consumers´ preferences.
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Böhm V, Wenzelburger J. Expectational Leads in Economic Dynamical Systems. In: Barnett WA, Deissenberger C, Feichtinger G, eds. Economic complexity: Non-linear dynamics, multi-agents economies, and learning. Economic Complexity. International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics. Vol 14. Amsterdam: Elsevier; 2004: 333-362.
Böhm, V., & Wenzelburger, J. (2004). Expectational Leads in Economic Dynamical Systems. In W. A. Barnett, C. Deissenberger, & G. Feichtinger (Eds.), Economic Complexity. International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics: Vol. 14. Economic complexity: Non-linear dynamics, multi-agents economies, and learning (pp. 333-362). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Böhm, V., and Wenzelburger, J. (2004). “Expectational Leads in Economic Dynamical Systems” in Economic complexity: Non-linear dynamics, multi-agents economies, and learning, ed. W. A. Barnett, C. Deissenberger, and G. Feichtinger Economic Complexity. International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, vol. 14, (Amsterdam: Elsevier), 333-362.
Böhm, V., & Wenzelburger, J., 2004. Expectational Leads in Economic Dynamical Systems. In W. A. Barnett, C. Deissenberger, & G. Feichtinger, eds. Economic complexity: Non-linear dynamics, multi-agents economies, and learning. Economic Complexity. International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics. no.14 Amsterdam: Elsevier, pp. 333-362.
V. Böhm and J. Wenzelburger, “Expectational Leads in Economic Dynamical Systems”, Economic complexity: Non-linear dynamics, multi-agents economies, and learning, W.A. Barnett, C. Deissenberger, and G. Feichtinger, eds., Economic Complexity. International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, vol. 14, Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2004, pp.333-362.
Böhm, V., Wenzelburger, J.: Expectational Leads in Economic Dynamical Systems. In: Barnett, W.A., Deissenberger, C., and Feichtinger, G. (eds.) Economic complexity: Non-linear dynamics, multi-agents economies, and learning. Economic Complexity. International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics. 14, p. 333-362. Elsevier, Amsterdam (2004).
Böhm, Volker, and Wenzelburger, Jan. “Expectational Leads in Economic Dynamical Systems”. Economic complexity: Non-linear dynamics, multi-agents economies, and learning. Ed. William A. Barnett, Christophe Deissenberger, and Gustav Feichtinger. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2004.Vol. 14. Economic Complexity. International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics. 333-362.
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