Expectations, forecasting, and perfect foresight - A dynamical systems approach

Böhm V, Wenzelburger J (1999)
MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS 3(2): 167-186.

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Zeitschriftenaufsatz | Veröffentlicht | Englisch
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Abstract / Bemerkung
The paper studies the nature of expectations formation rules for deterministic economic laws with an expectations feedback within the framework of dynamical systems theory. In such systems, the expectations formation rules, called predictors, have a dominant influence. The concept of a perfect predictor, which generates perfect-foresight orbits, is proposed and analyzed. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for which local as well as global perfect foresight is possible. The concept is illustrated for the general linear model as well as for models of the cobweb type. For the standard overlapping generations model of economic growth, the existence of perfect predictions depends strongly on the savings behavior of the agents and on the technology.
Erscheinungsjahr
Zeitschriftentitel
MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS
Band
3
Zeitschriftennummer
2
Seite
167-186
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Böhm V, Wenzelburger J. Expectations, forecasting, and perfect foresight - A dynamical systems approach. MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS. 1999;3(2):167-186.
Böhm, V., & Wenzelburger, J. (1999). Expectations, forecasting, and perfect foresight - A dynamical systems approach. MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS, 3(2), 167-186. doi:10.1017/S1365100599011025
Böhm, V., and Wenzelburger, J. (1999). Expectations, forecasting, and perfect foresight - A dynamical systems approach. MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS 3, 167-186.
Böhm, V., & Wenzelburger, J., 1999. Expectations, forecasting, and perfect foresight - A dynamical systems approach. MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS, 3(2), p 167-186.
V. Böhm and J. Wenzelburger, “Expectations, forecasting, and perfect foresight - A dynamical systems approach”, MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS, vol. 3, 1999, pp. 167-186.
Böhm, V., Wenzelburger, J.: Expectations, forecasting, and perfect foresight - A dynamical systems approach. MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS. 3, 167-186 (1999).
Böhm, Volker, and Wenzelburger, J. “Expectations, forecasting, and perfect foresight - A dynamical systems approach”. MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS 3.2 (1999): 167-186.