# Can a decline in the population means of cardiovascular risk factors reduce the number of people at risk?

Laaser U, Breckenkamp J, Ullrich A, Hoffmann B (2001)

JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH 55(3): 179-184.

*Journal Article*|

*Published*|

*English*

No fulltext has been uploaded

Author

Department

Abstract

Objective-To prove the possibility of shifting distribution of cardiovascular risk factors for a whole population over time and thereby to influence the prevalence of the corresponding disease states, according to the theory stated by Geoffrey Rose in 1985. Design-Examination of standardised data from the German Cardiovascular Prevention Study (GCP), a seven year long, population-based, multicentre intervention trial, concerned with decreasing risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Setting and subjects-three cross sectional surveys of a population 25 to 69 years old in six study regions, and three nationwide cross sectional surveys in the former West Germany in 1984, 1988 and 1991. Main outcome measures-The relation between the population mean for systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total serum cholesterol, body mass index, and alcohol intake, and the prevalence of the corresponding disease states, as are systolic (greater than or equal to 140 and greater than or equal to 160 mm Hg) and diastolic hypertension (greater than or equal to 90 and greater than or equal to 95 mm He). hypercholesterolaemia (greater than or equal to 250 and greater than or equal to 300 mg/dl), overweight (body mass index greater than or equal to 30 kg/m(2)), and heavy drinking (weekly alcohol intake greater than or equal to 300 g/week). Results are expressed as linear regression equations and Pearson correlation coefficients. Results-The correlation between the mean population values and prevalence of disease was close for blood pressures and body mass index. The Pearson coefficients, corrected for the influence of values increased above borderlines, were 0.86 and 0.81 respectively for systolic blood pressure, 0.88 and 0.91 for diastolic blood pressure, 0.28 and 0.52 for cholesterol, and 0.86 for the body mass index. The coefficient for alcohol intake was 0.55. Conclusions-It seems possible to shift the risk distribution of a population for some physiological parameters over time with the effect of changing the disease prevalence. This strategy can be used successfully for specific preventive measures, as was strongly advocated by Geoffrey Rose.

Publishing Year

ISSN

PUB-ID

### Cite this

Laaser U, Breckenkamp J, Ullrich A, Hoffmann B. Can a decline in the population means of cardiovascular risk factors reduce the number of people at risk?

*JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH*. 2001;55(3):179-184.Laaser, U., Breckenkamp, J., Ullrich, A., & Hoffmann, B. (2001). Can a decline in the population means of cardiovascular risk factors reduce the number of people at risk?

*JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH*,*55*(3), 179-184.Laaser, U., Breckenkamp, J., Ullrich, A., and Hoffmann, B. (2001). Can a decline in the population means of cardiovascular risk factors reduce the number of people at risk?

*JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH*55, 179-184.Laaser, U., et al., 2001. Can a decline in the population means of cardiovascular risk factors reduce the number of people at risk?

*JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH*, 55(3), p 179-184.U. Laaser, et al., “Can a decline in the population means of cardiovascular risk factors reduce the number of people at risk?”,

*JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH*, vol. 55, 2001, pp. 179-184.Laaser, U., Breckenkamp, J., Ullrich, A., Hoffmann, B.: Can a decline in the population means of cardiovascular risk factors reduce the number of people at risk? JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH. 55, 179-184 (2001).

Laaser, U, Breckenkamp, Jürgen, Ullrich, A, and Hoffmann, B. “Can a decline in the population means of cardiovascular risk factors reduce the number of people at risk?”.

*JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH*55.3 (2001): 179-184.
This data publication is cited in the following publications:

This publication cites the following data publications:

### 8 Citations in Europe PMC

Data provided by Europe PubMed Central.

Reducing the Blood Pressure-Related Burden of Cardiovascular Disease: Impact of Achievable Improvements in Blood Pressure Prevention and Control.

Hardy ST, Loehr LR, Butler KR, Chakladar S, Chang PP, Folsom AR, Heiss G, MacLehose RF, Matsushita K, Avery CL.,

PMID: 26508742

Hardy ST, Loehr LR, Butler KR, Chakladar S, Chang PP, Folsom AR, Heiss G, MacLehose RF, Matsushita K, Avery CL.,

*J Am Heart Assoc*4(10), 2015PMID: 26508742

Correlation between mean body mass index in the population and prevalence of obesity in Brazilian capitals: empirical evidence for a population-based approach of obesity.

Lobato JC, Kale PL, Velarde LG, Szklo M, Costa AJ.,

PMID: 25885330

Lobato JC, Kale PL, Velarde LG, Szklo M, Costa AJ.,

*BMC Public Health*15(), 2015PMID: 25885330

Rose's population strategy of prevention need not increase social inequalities in health.

McLaren L, McIntyre L, Kirkpatrick S.,

PMID: 19887510

McLaren L, McIntyre L, Kirkpatrick S.,

*Int J Epidemiol*39(2), 2010PMID: 19887510

Neurobehavioral testing in human risk assessment.

Rohlman DS, Lucchini R, Anger WK, Bellinger DC, van Thriel C.,

PMID: 18539229

Rohlman DS, Lucchini R, Anger WK, Bellinger DC, van Thriel C.,

*Neurotoxicology*29(3), 2008PMID: 18539229

Cohort profile: The Thai Cohort of 87,134 Open University students.

Sleigh AC, Seubsman SA, Bain C; Thai Cohort Study Team, Vilainerun D, Khamman S, Somboonsook B, Prapamontol T, Chokhanapitak J, Somsamai P, Pangsap S, Puengson J, Pandee D, Lim L, Kjellstrom T, McMichael AJ, Dixon J, Banwell C, Caldwell B, Carmichael G, Friel S, Strazdins L, Banks E, Mark T, Dellora T.,

PMID: 17911153

Sleigh AC, Seubsman SA, Bain C; Thai Cohort Study Team, Vilainerun D, Khamman S, Somboonsook B, Prapamontol T, Chokhanapitak J, Somsamai P, Pangsap S, Puengson J, Pandee D, Lim L, Kjellstrom T, McMichael AJ, Dixon J, Banwell C, Caldwell B, Carmichael G, Friel S, Strazdins L, Banks E, Mark T, Dellora T.,

*Int J Epidemiol*37(2), 2008PMID: 17911153

Premature mortality in Slovenia in relation to selected biological, socioeconomic, and geographical determinants.

Artnik B, Vidmar G, Javornik J, Laaser U.,

PMID: 16489703

Artnik B, Vidmar G, Javornik J, Laaser U.,

*Croat. Med. J.*47(1), 2006PMID: 16489703

What is an adverse effect? A possible resolution of clinical and epidemiological perspectives on neurobehavioral toxicity.

Bellinger DC.,

PMID: 15220073

Bellinger DC.,

*Environ. Res.*95(3), 2004PMID: 15220073

Perspectives on incorporating human neurobehavioral end points in risk assessments.

Bellinger DC.,

PMID: 12635730

Bellinger DC.,

*Risk Anal.*23(1), 2003PMID: 12635730

### 5 References

Data provided by Europe PubMed Central.

The population mean predicts the number of deviant individuals.

Rose G, Day S.,

PMID: 2249053

Rose G, Day S.,

*BMJ*301(6759), 1990PMID: 2249053

High-risk and population strategies of prevention: ethical considerations.

Rose G.,

PMID: 2605034

Rose G.,

*Ann. Med.*21(6), 1989PMID: 2605034

Reduction of coronary heart disease risk factors in the German cardiovascular prevention study.

Hoffmeister H, Mensink GB, Stolzenberg H, Hoeltz J, Kreuter H, Laaser U, Nussel E, Hullemann KD, Troschke JV.,

PMID: 8860278

Hoffmeister H, Mensink GB, Stolzenberg H, Hoeltz J, Kreuter H, Laaser U, Nussel E, Hullemann KD, Troschke JV.,

*Prev Med*25(2), 1996PMID: 8860278

Tracing of axonal connectivities in a combined slice preparation of rat brains--a study by rhodamine-dextran-amine-application in the lateral nucleus of the amygdala.

von Bohlen und Halbach O, Albrecht D.,

PMID: 9696322

von Bohlen und Halbach O, Albrecht D.,

*J. Neurosci. Methods*81(1-2), 1998PMID: 9696322

### Export

0 Marked Publications### Web of Science

View record in Web of Science®### Sources

PMID: 11160172

PubMed | Europe PMC