Long-term trends of the demographic aging in Germany

Birg H, Flöthmann E-J (2002)
Zeitschrift für Gerontologie und Geriatrie 35(5): 387-399.

Journal Article | Published | German

No fulltext has been uploaded

Abstract
At the beginning of the 21st century, Germany is experiencing the highest demographic aging after Japan. The aging process was first initiated by the increase of life expectancy, especially at the age above 60 years which caused an increase in the number of old people. During the next phase (1970-2000) the aging process was additionally affected by decreasing birth rates. Since the end of the 1960s the total fertility rate in Germany has been below the replacement level. As a consequence the number of children is decreasing and the number of old people has been increasing for 30 years. Various population projections published by the Institute for Population Research and Social Policy (IBS) demonstrate that the aging process will intensify during the next 50 years: the number of the oldest old population will triple, and the dependancy ratio will at least double. This process cannot be stopped or considerably diminished by an increasing number of young immigrants. After 2050 the cohorts born after the second world war (the baby boom cohorts) will be dead. But the decreasing number of old people beyond 2050 will not automatically lead to a lower dependancy ratio, because the age group 0-20 is diminishing continuously. Only a rise of the total fertility rate to the replacement level of 2.1 children per women could stop the aging process effectively in the long run (i.e., after two generations or after 60 years, respectively). In this case, the dependancy ratio will not double or triple but increase by a factor of 1.5.
Publishing Year
ISSN
eISSN
PUB-ID

Cite this

Birg H, Flöthmann E-J. Long-term trends of the demographic aging in Germany. Zeitschrift für Gerontologie und Geriatrie. 2002;35(5):387-399.
Birg, H., & Flöthmann, E. - J. (2002). Long-term trends of the demographic aging in Germany. Zeitschrift für Gerontologie und Geriatrie, 35(5), 387-399.
Birg, H., and Flöthmann, E. - J. (2002). Long-term trends of the demographic aging in Germany. Zeitschrift für Gerontologie und Geriatrie 35, 387-399.
Birg, H., & Flöthmann, E.-J., 2002. Long-term trends of the demographic aging in Germany. Zeitschrift für Gerontologie und Geriatrie, 35(5), p 387-399.
H. Birg and E.-J. Flöthmann, “Long-term trends of the demographic aging in Germany”, Zeitschrift für Gerontologie und Geriatrie, vol. 35, 2002, pp. 387-399.
Birg, H., Flöthmann, E.-J.: Long-term trends of the demographic aging in Germany. Zeitschrift für Gerontologie und Geriatrie. 35, 387-399 (2002).
Birg, Herwig, and Flöthmann, E.-Jürgen. “Long-term trends of the demographic aging in Germany”. Zeitschrift für Gerontologie und Geriatrie 35.5 (2002): 387-399.
This data publication is cited in the following publications:
This publication cites the following data publications:

3 Citations in Europe PMC

Data provided by Europe PubMed Central.

Baseline participation in a health examination survey of the population 65 years and older: who is missed and why?
Gaertner B, Seitz I, Fuchs J, Busch MA, Holzhausen M, Martus P, Scheidt-Nave C., BMC Geriatr 16(), 2016
PMID: 26787444
[Rehabilitation instead of nursing care. Current state and future demand of geriatric rehabilitation].
von Renteln-Kruse W, Anders J, Dapp U., Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz 54(4), 2011
PMID: 21465406
[Spectrum of patients in prehospital emergency services. What has changed over the last 20 years?]
Bernhard M, Hilger T, Sikinger M, Hainer C, Haag S, Streitberger K, Martin E, Gries A., Anaesthesist 55(11), 2006
PMID: 17063342

Export

0 Marked Publications

Open Data PUB

Web of Science

View record in Web of Science®

Sources

PMID: 12395233
PubMed | Europe PMC

Search this title in

Google Scholar